Dr Alf’s Two Cents: German leadership: Overcoming the demons | The Economist

Subregions of Europe (The World Factbook)

Subregions of Europe (The World Factbook) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Europe Simulator

Europe Simulator (Photo credit: wigu)

English: The Fall of the Berlin Wall, 1989. Th...

English: The Fall of the Berlin Wall, 1989. The photo shows a part of a public photo documentation wall at Former Check Point Charlie, Berlin. The photo documentation is permanently placed in the public. Türkçe: Berlin Duvarı, 1989 sonbaharı (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Germany

Germany (Photo credit: sanctumsolitude)

This is a brilliant MUST READ article in the Economist. Check it out!

German leadership: Overcoming the demons | The Economist.

Personally, I have been an optimist as far as Germany is concerned over the last two years. To date, the German approach has been largely incremental rather than radical. I have a healthy respect for the German vision of making Europe more competitive. To date, Germany has effectively been vetoing both fiscal and monetary expansion in Europe which has been extremely painful for Southern Europe.

The Economist article looks forward to the year 2020, with two very different scenarios, one rosy and the other full of gloom. The article shrewdly paints the upside opportunities and shares the downside risks. The article looks to the changes required from the German political classes; it highlights that Germany needs to place more focus on economics rather than legalistic solutions. Ultimately, after the election, Germany must lead more effectively, taking the rest of Europe with her; this does not necessarily need to be a federal model.

In my view, the downside case remains a disaster scenario.

What do you think?

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Dr Alf’s Two Cents: Is France Going to the Dogs?

[Opera House staircase, Paris, France] (LOC)

[Opera House staircase, Paris, France] (LOC) (Photo credit: The Library of Congress)

Alain Olive, general secretary of the French t...

Alain Olive, general secretary of the French trade-union UNSA (Union nationale des syndicats autonomes: National Union of autonomous trade-unions), during the demonstration against the law project about retirements reform on october 2010, 12th (Paris, boulevard du Temple). (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Annick Coupé, spokewoman of the SUD, French gr...

Annick Coupé, spokewoman of the SUD, French group of trade unions. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

I have increasingly been pondering the question:

Is France going to the dogs?

This week France has seen strikes cripple air travel; this was followed by a train strike. Also this week the Economist describes France as statist with weak leadership.

This week, I have blogged about the impact of financialization over the last thirty years, especially in Anglo-Saxon countries like the UK and the US. Apart from the financial services industry itself, driving forces have been free trade, globalization and economic liberalism, especially the reduced power of organized labor, the trade unions. For decades France has been in denial, arguing that global trends are Anglo-Saxon and need not apply to France. Weak leadership, strong unions, and high taxation have driven French citizens and French industry overseas. Both London and Hong-Kong have enormous French expat communities. Many argue that France’s political classes are especially arrogant and patronizing.

Germany wants Southern Europe to be frugal with good budget management, following German best practice. Meanwhile, France looks to protect French interests before all else.

Geographically, France is part of Southern Europe but France regards herself as a cut above Greece, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Cyprus, all of which have had severe economic crises and international financial bailouts in the last few years. Further, early moves to find a permanent solution to the Greek crisis were probably diverted by France to avoid crystallizing a French banking crisis; the greedy French banks had the biggest exposure to Greek debt.

Many years ago I was with a German colleague in Paris and he joked:

The Germans eat to live but the French live to eat!

France continues to have the longest holidays (vacations) in Europe and the shortest working week, so surely something must give? French citizens typically retire younger with fatter pensions too!

Will France continue in free-fall until there is a financial, economic, social and political crisis, like in Greece, for example?

Any thoughts?

 

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