How the UK can retain its Triple AAA status?

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English: George Osborne MP, pictured speaking ...
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…………………My top blog last week was entitled “Why the UK Still Has Triple AAA Status?”

In case other countries are thinking of trying to copy the UK, unfortunately that was about yesterday’s news. George Osborne was genuinely ahead of the curve on austerity and together with strong leadership from the Bank of England, the UK was able to look the credit analysts and hedge fund managers in the eye and remain Triple AAA.

Unfortunately, 2012 is a very different political and economic landscape and the political indecision in Europe has precipitated a very dangerous situation. Every self-respecting economist is screaming against more short-term austerity.

So what needs to be done? Well, in my book, it’s quite simple, so here’s my two cents worth of advice to George Osborne:

  1. To focus on growth with enormous short-term stimulus for investment both at the personal, corporate and public sector levels, and
  2. Debt levels need to be addressed as a serious medium term priority but the top priority is to stimulate short-term growth – austerity is now understood and needs to be subordinated as a priority – everybody now understands the German approach to fiscal prudence, and, of course,
  3. The Bank of England needs to be ready to prime the pumps with more QE (quantitative easing)

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Why the World’s political leaders will not be still peddling “Austerity” by Xmas 2012?

English: President Barack Obama talks with Chi...

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This is a bit of a Dumbo question but so many political leaders are out of touch with voters, and ordinary people at the sharp end, so here’s my two cents worth:

  1. President Obama will conduct a very powerful re-election campaign, strong on job and stimulating growth.
  2. The US economy will start to recover and other countries will be keen to jump on board.
  3. Voters in the US, France & Germany will vote for growth, not austerity.
  4. Every major financial institution and serious economist is already screaming against more short-term austerity.
  5. Politicians who stick to austerity will probably have riots and civil disorder because they are out of step with their voters.  

What do you think?