English: World GDP growth rate and GDP growth rate of total OECD countries. Data source: World Bank Group and OECD. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)
This article on Chinese growth is a good read. Check it out!
Personally, I am very confident in Chinese continued growth and think that policy-makers are well in control.
What do you think?
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At that rate plus encouraging more Chinese to “Swarm Out” overseas and establish new businesses in other countries, they can create 25 million new jobs a year in China which is the minimum necessary for them to be able to prevent Wukan style unrest at home and ensure that money is sent home.
Chinese people who have gone abroad to live and who are working send their parents money thus mitigating what would be a very large Adult Social Care bill.
I get a digest which shows which firms have relocated to the UK as part of planned expansion to the West and increasingly Chinese firms, particularly in software, feature in this web based publication.
The China Sovereign Wealth Fund is similarly “Swarming Out” using very precise market intelligence, both human and electronic, to target which strategic assets to purchase, what companies to buy shares in quietly and which ones to purchase outright.
They are already moving towards phase 2 of economic development which is to catch up with and overtake India which has 60% of the global market for offshoring of IT related BPO services by 2020.
Currently China has 20% of this marketplace.
In just 1 city of 3 million people(WUXI), this is worth $3 billion USD and the Mayor of that City wants to drive the figure up to $15 billion USD by 2015.
To close the gap with India the Chinese Government are driving up educational standards, training half their population to speak English, ensuring that their brightest graduates study in the West as well as in China and that technology graduates are trained in English via a joint venture with Carnegie Mellon.
India has become too blase about its position and needs to look to its laurels rather than simply expecting everyone to beat a path to their door.
We should be working out how to benefit from what the Chinese are doing and “Swarm Out” ourselves, but the Coalition and the “Business Secretary” Dr Cable are asleep at the wheel underestimating the Chinese and learning very little.
As an additional step in the “Swarming Out ” process the Chinese Government has started piloting sending their brightest overseas students to stay with strategically selected families in the West rather than live in isolation in boarding schools so that they can assimilate our culture and more insidiously understand exactly how we think.
The first UK pilot is being started in Newcastle (presumably in Jesmond a very upmarket area of the City), in conjunction with the local authority.If it works for them it will be rolled out to other parts of the UK. Those students will grow up to be leaders of businesses and apparachiks who will be bilingual, who will know how we think, how we operate and our weaknesses whereas we will, by and large, know a lot less about them.
John, many thanks for the clarification and additional insights. I share your optimism about China.