The Guardian reports on a recent poll that UK Coalition Government is not expected to last until 2015. Check it out!
Coalition government will not survive until 2015 election, voters predict | Politics | guardian.co.uk.
Whilst I can personally relate to these findings, it would have been much more interesting to look at the probabilities of failure by year, i.e. failure in:
How long do you expect the Coalition Government to last?
Trouble will start in 2013 when the cuts start to bite and there is nothing to distract the people.
At present, disposable income for the average family of 4 is £97 gbp and we have just had a significant hike in fuel prices and a deferred increase of up to 11% on rail fares.
To export, we need a weaker pound but that would put up petrol prices.
Draught in America is going to push up the price of food globally.
Oil is becoming more expensive as the drumbeat to war with Syria and Iran gets louder.
All in all, this for many will be the straw that breaks the camels back and something that will force many not to go on holiday.
We also have the festering Euro crisis in Europe and the fact that on 20th August Greece will run out of money, leading to a possible domino effect as Southern Europe implodes.
David Cameron’s talk of austerity until 2020 is not impressing Big Business or the media barons so he is on his way out and then on to the UN.
People and mid caps will not put up with Cameron’s continued failure to deliver and his feeble excuses so by the end of 2013 an election could be called.
Boris has a choice, he can wait until David Cameron gets trounced and the Conservative Party is forced to turn to someone capable of connecting with working class voters drawn from the C1s’, C2s’, Ds’ and Es’ or he can wait until the Tories get another bad opinion poll and their MPs sense the possibility of a dole queue looming towards them.
My bet is upon a leadership challenge soon after the Spring of next year once Boris has had a chance to demonstrate a reputation for efficiency and an ability to secure overseas funding for infrastructure.
John, many thanks for a well argued case for a UK election in 2013. I broadly support your argument. In my view, the Cameron/Osborne team always had a simplified view of austerity being a total solution and did not understand that stimulating growth was a more pressing challenge.