Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate, Q1 2013 (Source: ONS)

United Kingdom: stamp

United Kingdom: stamp (Photo credit: Sem Paradeiro)

United Kingdom

United Kingdom (Photo credit: stumayhew)

This document from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) makes interesting reading. Check it out!

Gross Domestic Product Preliminary Estimate, Q1 2013.

If you look at the data, you will see that the UK has missed a negative Q1 by a whisker, with 0.3% growth overall. A negative Q1 combined with negative Q4 2012 is officially a recession; given the room for statistical accuracy and subsequent revision, the UK is flat-lining if not in negative growth.

Look a little deeper at the performance by sector and there is room for serious alarm. The overall results have been influenced by growth from the service sector; look at the detail and even the service sector is skewed strongly by legal services and Government Services which are mentioned. What is really worrying is the negative trend line for construction and production.

The overall result will probably provide some wriggle room for UK Chancellor, George Osborne, but the underlying data should provide room for serious concern.

So apart from probably record bonuses for lawyers, a worrying quarter for most. Parents and young people will get little encouragement from this data.

Here are some simple questions:

  • What about exports?
  • What about investment?
  • What about employment?
  • What about labor costs?

Any views?

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4 responses

  1. Pingback: David Cameron: Coalition is helping families pay their bills – Telegraph « Dr Alf's Blog

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  4. Your simple questions have very alarming answers:

    Q What about exports?

    A Practically zero and the Government is doing too little to promote them and next to nothing about language skills training or assistance through the LEPS/David Cameron’s volunteer business mentors.

    Q What about investment?

    A There is very little in the way of new money and little or no attempt to attract wealthy foreigners other than people buying expensive houses in London (Russian oligarchs in Hampstead and Totteridge, Italians in Clerkenwell, Chinese in West London, Singaporeans in West and North London, the French all over the place, etc, etc)

    UK companies are split into 2, those who are “waiting for things to pick up before they invest” and those who choose to make their money in overseas markets which they have already established.

    People will not invest in this country until there is a competitive tax regime yet Cameron, Gauke and Alexander seem to want a global crackdown on tax avoidance.

    It is little wonder the Chinese privately regard Western leaders like Cameron and Obama as “children playing in a sandpit”.

    Q What about employment?

    A It is falling and being massaged but we have more than 1.25 million young people not working a similar number not in education, employment or training (NEETS) and about 1 million on “work experience “and training programs with private sector providers who are not achieving their targets but still being paid.

    Worse than that, 80% of jobs go to people of foreign descent, primarily Poles and Eastern Europeans and the 350,000 Bulgarians and Romanians are poised to come here.

    We already have 4.5 million illegal immigrants and it is still possible to buy fake identities and spare NI numbers which means that non EU immigration is higher than official figures by as much as 250,000 per year.

    Benefit changes and a sanctions regime which will deny people benefits for 3 years will cause homelessness and street crime plus heightened social tensions.

    Q What about labor costs?

    A These will fall and have to be subsidized by Housing Benefit and Working Tax Credit at the bottom end of the scale whilst Times 1000 CEOs, top civil servants, NHS executives, BBC and quango-crats and fat cats pay themselves eye watering amounts of money.

    The situation is unsustainable, just as the wealth gap in Ancient Rome became unsustainable leading to more rebellions than Rome with its best legions could put down.

    We are heading for trouble and our leaders see the answer as a containable Vietnam on a grand scale in Africa and then a wider war.

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