I refer to Dr Alf’s reblog of the Washington Post article entitled “ U.S. military officers have deep doubts about impact, wisdom of a U.S. strike on Syria“. I should like to share my reflections after reading this article.

They are being eminently sensible because they see the dangers of a wider Middle East war which they and their men will have to fight and possibly die in.

Assad is not a threat to the Saudi Arabian oilfields or to anyone outside of Syria as long as he is left alone.

However, a military strike against him is going to make him dangerous and desperate and push up the price of oil.

This will tip the West back into recession and create more unemployment at a time we need to be creating jobs and prosperity following the plundering of the public in the Banking crisis.

Secondly,a military strike and a wider Middle East war is going to further embolden the Taliban in Afghanistan at a time just before our planned withdrawal and exactly when we need that place stabilized so that the Chinese can continue to mine copper and lithium worth $6 trillion USD at Aynak and continue propping up the US dollar.

While the US dollar is propped up and America’s recovery gathers pace, the cost of the Pentagon budget even with budget cuts, is affordable.

Upset the Chinese with precipitous military action and the equation changes.The West has more to lose in terms of living standards than the great mass of people in China, so military action has even bigger downsides.

Lastly a wider war will cause more casualties than the present conflict and hard as it is to imagine, many more refugees.

The American military men are following the strategies of Sun Tzu who said “Good warriors cause others to come to them and not go to others”.He also said:

• “Be extremely subtle, even to the point of formlessness.
• “Be extremely mysterious,even to the point of soundlessness”.
• “Thereby you can be the director of the opponent’s fate”

Making bellicose threats on the basis of no hard evidence, engaging in arm twisting of a deeply skeptical public, showing your hand in public and openly discussing your plans is not subtle or wise.

When people know in advance how you are going to proceed, you lose the element of surprise and you cannot predict the consequences of what they might do even if you are militarily stronger.

The American military men also see no strategy and no endgame and are therefore uneasy. They are right to think that way.

John Gelmini

Greater Middle East (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Related articles

• The wisdom of the Chinese view on Western intervention in Syria – John Gelmini (dralfoldman.com)
• Syria, the “red line” and morality: Some wider reflections – John Gelmini (dralfoldman.com)
• Syria, Cameron, UK Parliament and Risks of Military Action – John Gelmini (dralfoldman.com)
• Austerity Economics Politics Riots and War: Aug 1914 Parallels for Summer 2013 – John Gelmini (dralfoldman.com)
• The Western Military Intervention in Syria: further thoughts – John Gelmini (dralfoldman.com)
• The Case against further Western Intervention in Syria – A personal view from John Gelmini (dralfoldman.com)
• A Hard Look at Western Military Intervention in Syria: John Gelmini (dralfoldman.com)
• A Hard Look at UK’s Ageing Population, Welfare and David Cameron’s Priorities – John Gelmini (dralfoldman.com)
• A Hard Look at UK Defense Spending – John Gelmini (dralfoldman.com)
• UK Decline and EU Membership: Response to Lord Heseltine – John Gelmini (dralfoldman.com)