Understanding context of Iran’s Rouhani posible meeting Obama at UN – John Gelmini

Like Dr Alf, I am skeptical but the sanctions against Iran have concentrated minds in that country at the same time as ordinary people in the West have become tired of ceaseless wars against terrorism and this or that threat which serve only to make the problems worse.

Under Arminajad, Iran’s rhetoric was belligerent and was capable of misinterpretation to the point where they believe that what he was threatening was to “wipe Israel from the face of the earth.” In reality, I maintain that he never said what he is alleged to have said but the damage was done. In any event, he could never have done so because his military forces were not strong enough and he lacks the 200 plus nuclear weapons Israel allegedly has for self-defense. His return to the obscurity of academia is very welcome.

Iran’s new President is using different rhetoric because the Iranian people, like people everywhere, want jobs, growth and prosperity and will expect President Rouhani to deliver it or make effective efforts to bring this benign state of affairs to fruition.

President Obama has just 2 years and 4 months left in office and is therefore a “lame duck” President looking towards his legacy and what he does next. Currently, he and his wife Michelle are, through proxies allegedly doing a lot of real estate investment and making a great deal of money in a very tax efficient way. This is prudent financial planning on their part but it does mean that President Obama’s whole attention is not on running America and the Free World.

Prince Bandar in Saudi Arabia, the Emir of Qatar and Turkey all want to “cut off the head of the snake”(topple Iran) and to do so need to topple Syria first. Russia and China do not want that to happen so the question then is what happens next.

I see it as a stalemate, in which all the rhetoric has to be toned down and the loudest and most belligerent put back carefully into their boxes.

Others want a wider Middle East War to create “new facts on the ground”,a Balkanized Syria, Iran destroyed and presumably occupied. Toppling Syria and Iran will bring about a Sunni puppet regime for both countries which helps to expand the Wahabi idea of a Global Califate. It will also create millions of refugees and a breeding ground for terrorism which benefits no-one.

Turkey will want to be rewarded for whatever part it plays in this and its price would be EU membership which would cause the cash strapped EU to implode.

Attempts to topple Iran and Syria would bring China and Russia into the equation with unquantifiable and possibly horrific consequences so an uneasy settlement and rapprochement, difficult though that will be to achieve,is the way forward.

John Gelmini

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The UK’s best role in Hong Kong elections – John Gelmini

The UK should not comment about the election in Hong Kong until it is over.Then at the point when the overall winner is announced and the position of the Chinese Government is known about the winner, the UK Government should congratulate the winner.

David Cameron should be the one to do the congratulating and the Queen needs to be seen to invite the winner and the Chinese President to Buckingham Palace at a sensible future date.

UKTI in its role to build trade with China should employ more Chinese graduates as business advisors/liaison people in this country and each of the LEPS should do the same rather than just employing people from the indigenous population (more dead white male and female syndrome). I have tried to make the case for this in my local LEP and in others but the rampant parochialism and polite racism is all too visible so these organisations and the local authorities which effectively control them need to be directed to take this action by Central Government.

Dr Alf is right to say that the UK’s focus needs to be on the future and with properly considered engagement, rather than attempts to lecture people by David Cameron who the Chinese do not rate and the British public need at the earliest opportunity, to replace.

John Gelmini

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