Understanding context of Iran’s Rouhani posible meeting Obama at UN – John Gelmini

Like Dr Alf, I am skeptical but the sanctions against Iran have concentrated minds in that country at the same time as ordinary people in the West have become tired of ceaseless wars against terrorism and this or that threat which serve only to make the problems worse.

Under Arminajad, Iran’s rhetoric was belligerent and was capable of misinterpretation to the point where they believe that what he was threatening was to “wipe Israel from the face of the earth.” In reality, I maintain that he never said what he is alleged to have said but the damage was done. In any event, he could never have done so because his military forces were not strong enough and he lacks the 200 plus nuclear weapons Israel allegedly has for self-defense. His return to the obscurity of academia is very welcome.

Iran’s new President is using different rhetoric because the Iranian people, like people everywhere, want jobs, growth and prosperity and will expect President Rouhani to deliver it or make effective efforts to bring this benign state of affairs to fruition.

President Obama has just 2 years and 4 months left in office and is therefore a “lame duck” President looking towards his legacy and what he does next. Currently, he and his wife Michelle are, through proxies allegedly doing a lot of real estate investment and making a great deal of money in a very tax efficient way. This is prudent financial planning on their part but it does mean that President Obama’s whole attention is not on running America and the Free World.

Prince Bandar in Saudi Arabia, the Emir of Qatar and Turkey all want to “cut off the head of the snake”(topple Iran) and to do so need to topple Syria first. Russia and China do not want that to happen so the question then is what happens next.

I see it as a stalemate, in which all the rhetoric has to be toned down and the loudest and most belligerent put back carefully into their boxes.

Others want a wider Middle East War to create “new facts on the ground”,a Balkanized Syria, Iran destroyed and presumably occupied. Toppling Syria and Iran will bring about a Sunni puppet regime for both countries which helps to expand the Wahabi idea of a Global Califate. It will also create millions of refugees and a breeding ground for terrorism which benefits no-one.

Turkey will want to be rewarded for whatever part it plays in this and its price would be EU membership which would cause the cash strapped EU to implode.

Attempts to topple Iran and Syria would bring China and Russia into the equation with unquantifiable and possibly horrific consequences so an uneasy settlement and rapprochement, difficult though that will be to achieve,is the way forward.

John Gelmini

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3 responses

  1. Pingback: Opinion: PM Netanyahu’s remarks in Moscow 20 Nov 2013 – John Gelmini « Dr Alf's Blog

  2. Pingback: Has Syria triggered a change in the political dynamics at the UN Security Council? – John Gelmini « Dr Alf's Blog

  3. Pingback: My thoughts “Putin Sees Syria as Fight Against Islamist Extremism” ex Spiegel – John Gelmini « Dr Alf's Blog

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