2013 September 27 « Dr Alf's Blog

English: se level rise by 2100 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Reconstructions using multiple climate proxy records, from ‘Climate change 2007: the physical science basis’ ; Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Jansen, E., J. Overpeck, K.R. Briffa, J.-C. Duplessy, F. Joos, V. Masson-Delmotte, D. Olago, B. Otto-Bliesner, W.R. Peltier, S. Rahmstorf, R. Ramesh, D. Raynaud, D. Rind, O. Solomina, R. Villalba and D. Zhang. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Français : Stock de carbone mondial (hors océan), en GtC. Source données = GIEC (=Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change =IPCC) 2001 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Arctic September Sea Ice Extent: Observations vs. Computer Model Runs – Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) found that satellite and other observations show the Arctic ice cover is retreating more rapidly than estimated by any of the eighteen computer models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in preparing its 2007 assessments. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Mean surface temperature change for 1999–2008 relative to the average temperatures from 1940 to 1980 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This is an excellent, MUST READ article from the FT, summarizing the latest UN evidence. Check it out!

via Key points in IPCC climate change report – FT.com.

Surely, conservatives must believe some of this evidence or are they just in denial and leaving the crisis to future generations?

Any thoughts?

English: David Cameron at a Conservative Party Reception (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This is an excellent, thought-provoking blog from Oxford economist, Simon Wren-Lewis. I would recommend it as a MUST-READ, in my view. Check it out!

via mainly macro: Will the UK Conservatives become like the Republican Party?.

There are a number of important themes in this article but the pivotal issue is whether ideology has more influence than evidenced based policy. Wren-Lewis argues:

I would argue that attitudes to climate change represent an acid test of whether ideology has overtaken evidence in parties of the right.

As I digested the article, I focused on the policies of David Cameron’s government over the last three years, especially George Osborne‘s economic policies that have favored excessive austerity; for me, this has all been about ideology, rather than evidence based policy. Every respectable economist, including the IMF has called for fiscal stimulation in the UK but this has been ignored by George Osborne. We seem to be witnessing a recovery based upon inflationary property expectations because of the Government’s policy of guaranteeing property loans to first buyers. There still seems to be an absence of investment and focus on exports.

Another interesting theme is that David Cameron is basically playing to the right of the Conservative Party and that gay marriage and foreign aide are just a couple of sweeteners for the center.

Wren-Lewis’ conclusion is deeply worrying in my view:

The pessimistic conclusion for those who believe in evidence based policy may be that there is nothing that can stop the Republicanisation of the UK Conservative Party.

Any thoughts on the UK Conservatives becoming like the Republican Party?