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This is a must read article from Turkey’s leading news source Hurryat. The article focuses on growth projections of the major economies. Surprisingly, the UK will overtake Germany. Check it out!

via Turkey slides back 19th biggest economy by end of this year – ECONOMICS.

The article and the underlying research make interesting reading but it’s critical to dwell on the underlying assumptions. In particular, let’s consider political risks for two countries featured, namely the UK and Turkey.

For me, the assumptions about the UK overtaking Germany must be at serious risk if the UK leaves the EU.

Similarly, I do not believe that the projections for Turkey factor in the full impact of Turkey’s recent foreign policy. Much of Turkey’s growth in investment and jobs comes from inward investment. I predict that western companies, especially multi-nationals will increasing consider political risk in investment decisions.

Thoughts?