Forecasts of the 2015 UK general election, combining data from YouGov, publicly released polls, historical election results, and the UK Census – ElectionForecast.co.uk

This is an excellent site to monitor the forecasts of the 2015 UK general election, combining data from YouGov, publicly released polls, historical election results, and the UK Census

via ElectionForecast.co.uk.

If the polls are correct, there will be no overall winner in the UK’s general election. This will lead either to a minority government or another, possibly three-way coalition. Watch for financial market volatility as the more extreme scenarios are explored in the media.

Thoughts?

 

 

One response

  1. Even with the data Dr Alf has carefully assembled there are missing factors which could change the result:
    –Census data is inaccurate and does not reflect the population of a given area precisely enough
    –The effects of the Chancellor’s pre election boom are being felt by the great unwashed or at least enough of them to make a difference.Just 21 marginal seats need to be won for the Conservatives to win narrowly and outright.
    –People in England are beginning to realise that the Scottish Nationalists in or out of Coalition would be truculent and costly bedfellows
    –People are seeing politicians in minor parties make mistakes(Farage,Bennett)
    Promises of jam tomorrow will not be enough to counter what will be seen as a rising tide which will eventually float all boats and Ed Miliband is not seen as economically competent whereas the Conservatives are thought of as toffs but more competent.
    The fear of loss is always a greater motivator than rhetoric around the concept of “we can do better than this” which might work in a country like America which is more opportunity focussed than risk averse.

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