Forecasts Show Fading Optimism on U.S. Economic Rebound – Real Time Economics – WSJ

It looks like clouds ahead for the US economy. This is worth a read from the WSJ.

via Forecasts Show Fading Optimism on U.S. Economic Rebound – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

The critical question is how much will the Fed raise interest rates, if at all, and when, on the back of weakening growth prospects?

Thoughts?

Brexit – what would happen if Britain left the EU? | Politics | The Guardian

English: Flag of the Council of Europe

English: Flag of the Council of Europe (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

European flag outside the Commission

European flag outside the Commission (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This is an outstanding, must-read article from the Guardian. Check it out!

via Brexit – what would happen if Britain left the EU? | Politics | The Guardian.

I’m delighted to say that this is an example of first-rate journalism from the Guardian. The Guardian journalists summarize the alternative available evidence. There is no attempt to lead the reader by the nose, nor a compelling political line linked by isolated evidence. This is quality journalism, reporting the story and saving the editorial opinion.

If you read the Guardian article carefully and research the available evidence, you will appreciate that the range of variation is quite enormous. The Guardian takes an important step in the right direction.

Others will need to list the assumptions, identify alternative scenarios and deploy macro-economists to model the sensitivities. A very distiled version will be needed for the UK public. But evidence matters. Surely, a Brexit cannot just be left to political dogma alone?

Thoughts?