Daily Archives: December 28, 2015

Opinion – Booming Britain to become world’s fourth largest economy as France and Italy face G8 exclusion – Telegraph

December 28, 2015 By in Business Administration, Economics, Education, Energy Policy, Fiscal Policy, George Osborne, Growth, Healthcare, Immigration, NHS, People, Politics, Public Services Reform 1 Comment

The Telegraph cites a new report alledging that Europe’s largest economies will struggle to remain members of the world’s elite economic club as UK races ahead.

Source: Booming Britain to become world’s fourth largest economy as France and Italy face G8 exclusion – Telegraph

Both the Telegraph and the Express featured this story over Christmas whilst, the more left-wing media focused on the flood disaster and the risk of sky-high consumer debt.

The problem with the Telegraph article is that it’s  very weak journalism. Where’s the evidence? What are the assumptions? Also have all risks been identified and mitigated?

It’s too easy game to knock France & Germany ahead of the Brexit referendum and cite the blue-sky extrapolations about the UK.

Critical assumptions/risks should include as a minimum:

  1. Energy strategy, prices & risk scenarios
  2. War/terrorism
  3. Brexit/Independent Scotland
  4. Net migration, including refugees
  5. Political polarization to the extreme right & left
  6. Investment in critical industries
  7. Export effectiveness
  8. Competition in critical industries, like financial services
  9. Improvement in UK education, skills and training
  10. Healthcare scenarios
  11. Public service reform
  12. Impact of advanced technology, best practice and globalization on traditional industries, including the public sector

Thoughts?

 

Failed flood defences cast doubt on UK readiness for new weather era | Environment | The Guardian

December 28, 2015 By in Architecture, Austerity, Business Administration, David Cameron, George Osborne, People, Politics 1 Comment

The Guardian reports that troops called in and 1,000 soldiers on standby as thousands of people are evacuated after ‘unprecedented’ water levels hit northern England. This is a must-read and deeply worrying article.

Source: Failed flood defences cast doubt on UK readiness for new weather era | Environment | The Guardian

This is a disgraceful situation for the UK government of David Cameron and George Osborne. Osborne’s bacon-slicer approach to public spending was always high risk. Now we are seeing the impact of under investment in public services. For sure, the government will try to pass the buck and blame senior civil servants.

I fear that this is just one key area where the UK government is seriously at risk.

A broad based strategy is required to deal with the UK, with proper bottom-up costing and independent risk-assessment.

Thoughts?