The Telegraph cites a new report alledging that Europe’s largest economies will struggle to remain members of the world’s elite economic club as UK races ahead.
Source: Booming Britain to become world’s fourth largest economy as France and Italy face G8 exclusion – Telegraph
Both the Telegraph and the Express featured this story over Christmas whilst, the more left-wing media focused on the flood disaster and the risk of sky-high consumer debt.
The problem with the Telegraph article is that it’s very weak journalism. Where’s the evidence? What are the assumptions? Also have all risks been identified and mitigated?
It’s too easy game to knock France & Germany ahead of the Brexit referendum and cite the blue-sky extrapolations about the UK.
Critical assumptions/risks should include as a minimum:
- Energy strategy, prices & risk scenarios
- Brexit/Independent Scotland
- Net migration, including refugees
- Political polarization to the extreme right & left
- Investment in critical industries
- Export effectiveness
- Competition in critical industries, like financial services
- Improvement in UK education, skills and training
- Healthcare scenarios
- Public service reform
- Impact of advanced technology, best practice and globalization on traditional industries, including the public sector