What impact would Brexit have on the EU? | World Economic Forum

English: Official logo of the World Economic F...

English: Official logo of the World Economic Forum. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This is an outstanding, must-read article published by WEF. The authors argue that Brexit could have serious economic and political consequences for the rest of the EU.

Source: What impact would Brexit have on the EU? | World Economic Forum

Much of Europe is still suffering from austerity policies with millions of youngsters still out of work. Add to the mix divergent views on handling refugees and dealing with intelligence on terrorists and Europe is looking both vulnerable and at risk.


One response

  1. Looking at the facts on the ground in conjunction with human nature this article from the WEF courtesy of Dr. Alf is interesting in terms of what will happen the-the EU if the UK votes to leave.

    Firstly, the EU would be £12 billion GBP worse off straight away due to the loss of UK budget contributions so all the member countries like Germany,in the nett contributor category would have to pay more.

    Second, the process of EU enlargement to incorporate Turkey and the Ukraine, possibly by 2021 in the case of Turkey and later in the case of Ukraine, would have to slow down in order for the EU to find the money to bring this about in a way that will be saleable to ordinary people in Europe and acceptable to the Russians who have said that they will not tolerate an EU which stretches right up to the Russian border.

    The price of oil is now slowly rising again although Goldman Sachs and the oil companies are filling their boots with investments in lithium so EU leverage over Russia and the sanctions imposed over Crimea’s annexation is going to weaken. The EU will either have to reach a rapprochement with Russia or engage in a costly arms buildup which it can ill afford.

    3rd, the TTIP discussions which are continuing in secret will become more difficult thus delaying the bigger discussions about the direction and purpose of the EU. Under TTIP and plans already in motion to build a highway that stretches from Canada,through America and then Central America and Mexico the idea is to gradually merge America, Canada and Mexico into a single country and then merge that entity into a super-bloc incorporating the whole of the EU in enlarged form.

    That enlargement is planned not only for Turkey and the Ukraine to the east but also for Israel and some selected North African regimes to the south. America is against Brexit and wants to dispatch President Obama to Britain to campaign for the UK to remain, precisely because of these much bigger issues. The EU, particularly Angela Merkel’s Germany, can expect more American pressure to square the circle with the UK and keep these processes on track.
    Part of that pressure will be insisting that Europe actually pays a bigger proportion of its budget towards the costs of the upkeep of NATO as Donald Trump has hinted at in staking out a negotiating position on the subject for the person who is going to become President, his friend and wedding guest, Hillary Clinton.

    4th, the migrant crisis caused by the stupidity and mendacity of EU leaders will continue which means that the EU either has to let in increasing numbers of economic migrants reclassified as Turkish citizens, assuming Turkey becomes a full member by 2021 or end Schengen and change the migration rules.

    If it does not change the migration rules people like Victor Orban of Hungary will prevail and the EU will break apart as people in all EU countries rise up, become much more right wing and insist on an Australian-style points system and the repatriation of all those who are troublesome and do not share our Judeo-Christian values.

    5th, if the past is any guide to the future, we can expect more inflation in the EU created by quantitative easing, because whilst Germany and Northern Europe, apart from Britain, understands the need to produce and sell things that people want, Southern Europe has a “supplicant mentality”. We can also expect the EU to become less competitive as a result, a fact that will not be unnoticed in China which will take the opportunity to buy up more of Europe’s key industries.

    The prognosis I see for the EU is unremittingly bad whether the UK stays in it or goes. Like a lame horse beyond cure, it is probably now time for someone in the guise of a vet armed with a .38 calibre revolver to go to” the stable”, do the deadly deed and then console the distressed horsewoman who will live to ride another day.

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