EU referendum: Brexit ‘would spark year-long recession’ – Treasury – BBC News

The BBC reports that the  latest Treasury analysis says  the Brexit would tip the UK into a year-long recession, but Vote Leave dismisses the study as “deeply biased”.

Source: EU referendum: Brexit ‘would spark year-long recession’ – Treasury – BBC News

As a passionate advocate of the UK remaining in the EU, I think that this article is worth a few cents of further comment.

All the economic evidence is with the Remain campaign. It shows well defined risks and downside projections for the UK. These risks are real with a high probability of happening.

Meanwhile, time after time the Brexit supporters accuse the evidence as biased or they are simply in denial. The Brexit team have offered no detailed costings or risk assessments. Their economic arguments are very flaky and based upon deeply suspect theory.

As far as economic matters are concerned, the Brexit supporters are completely in denial. They try to destroy the prevailing evidence, regard it as biased but have no alternative. If you have tried to have a rational debate with a Brexit supporter, you will recognize the denial.

This week Nigel Farage is touring the UK in his ‘Vote Independence’ bus. Brexit supporters will hear speeches appealing to their sense of patriotism and playing to their deepest fears – in short, there will be more xenophobia. As the penny drops that there will be severe hardship ahead, expect more extreme Brexit supporters to turn on minorities – it will be time to ‘raise the Little England drawbridge’ in their judgement. The Brexit campaigners are playing to the fear of the future, denying reality and offering false promises of returning Britain to the way that it once was.

The article from the BBC is clear. It also summarizes the arguments for both Remain and Brexit.

Leaders of both sides recognize that that they will not win over undecided voters by rational argument, so they will resort more and more to negative campaigning in the coming weeks.

According to latest polls, the remain team are increasing their lead. Unfortunately, the damage is done and even with a win in the referendum I expect deep scars. Sadly, right wing populism will be more entrenched in the UK.

Thoughts?

 

 

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