Daily Archives: May 31, 2016

Opinion – Lesson from Cyprus: Spending Restraint Is the Pro-Growth Way to Solve a Fiscal Crisis | Cato – John Gelmini

May 31, 2016 By in Business Administration, Cyprus, cyprusgas, cyprusreunification, People, Politics, Turkey Tags: , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment
English: Map of Cyprus showing districts

English: Map of Cyprus showing districts (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dr Alf is correct, the Cato Institute has come up with an excellent article which portrays Cyprus in a good light but carefully fails to mention the “bail ins” implemented by Chancellor Merkel, the Russian oligarchs who were tipped off before the bail ins were triggered and were able to remove their money offshore/out of the country in the nick of time.

Reunifying the Turkish controlled part of Cyprus with the Greek controlled portion could prove highly dangerous given the nature of the migrant deal concluded by Merkel, Erdogan and Tusk because we know that Turkish border guards will turn people loose for a few pounds and that the incentive will be there for Turkey to grant Turkish citizenship to Syrian refugees and reclassified economic migrants in order to let them out of Turkey and onwards into Europe.

With a reunified Cyprus, an unrestrained Turkey under Erdogan, who is a non secular Muslim leader, might be tempted to see Cyprus as part of his new Ottoman Empire so any Cyprus compact /roadmap must be decision treed and then negotiated in such a way that Erdogan and Turkey, even under a new leader, cannot fix the process to the disadvantage of the people of Cyprus and its expatriate residents (like Dr Alf).

Cyprus might do better as a Federation within the EU split between two Swiss style Cantons, each with a mandatory population ceiling like Singapore’s.

Cypriot offshore gas and oil exploration and exploitation makes sense if conducted with countries like Israel which will no doubt join the EU during the 2nd phase of its enlargement.

John Gelmini

More opinion – David Cameron ‘toast within days’ if Britain votes to leave European Union, says Tory MP | UK Politics | News | The Independent – John Gelmini

May 31, 2016 By in Brexit, David Cameron, People, Politics Tags: , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment

This post, courtesy of Dr Alf, comes via the Independent, and refers to Nadine Dorries, the loud and unspeakably brash MP for Mid Bedfordshire, being interviewed by Robert Peston yesterday (Sunday the 29th May, where she accused the Prime Minister of lying to Parliament over Turkish accession to the EU). David Cameron the week before had said that Turkey would not join the EU until it had met all the entry requirements and that this would not happen until 3000 despite having previously said that he wanted Turkey to be fast tracked which some people assume to be 2021.

The truth about Turkish accession is going to be determined by Angela Merkel and Erdogan, with an actual date long before 3000 but not within David Cameron’s control since he can only remain in post until about 2018 at best.

David Cameron will probably win the EU Referendum because the natural inertia and the weight of press and media coverage for the Remain case.

I suspect he will win narrowly which means that he has no reason to engage in triumphalism and must deal with the practical issues of additional housing, extra people arriving because of new EU accession countries and the EU Army which is unaffordable and not required because we already have NATO.

As Dr Alf knows, Nadine Dorries is a political chancer from Mid Bedfordshire and not a particularly good constituency MP. I live adjacent to her constituency and know people there who would cheerfully throw this loud money grubbing and allegedly sometimes hard drinking woman under a bus.

She once went on a reality television programme hosted by “Ant ” and “Dec” to supposedly endure the privations of the jungle in order to get £40,000 GBP on top of her MP’s salary and was suspended from the Conservative Party as a result.

So sending in a letter to unseat David Cameron to gain preferment in a leadership election against him is unseemly before the results of the Referendum are known.

There is no need for a second General Election or for the Conservative Party to split but there is a need for the Prime Minister to start solving problems like defence, energy, lack of exports and food security, the porous nature of our borders, the need for systems building, poor worker productivity and the need to control both the extent and nature of the welfare system and uncontrolled migration.

If he does not rise to the challenge and very quickly then his planned exit to his new job should be expedited to well before 2020 or 2018 which is more realistic.

If he loses the Referendum, then he should go and be succeeded either by Gove or someone like Andrea Leadsom, after a reasonable and orderly transition process.

An election now or before Christmas could trigger a Labour leadership contest, the removal of Corbyn and his replacement with someone much more electable, like Bradshaw or Tristram Hunt or one of the less harridan like Labour woman.

Nadine Dorries needs to take a deep breath and learn the quality of silence before rampaging about like a Liverpudlian Bull in a China shop.

John Gelmini