E.U. Countries Warn Britain on ‘Brexit’: You’ll Pay if You Leave Us – The New York Times

Here is another excellent Brexit article from the NYT. It’s a must read. The article argues that if the UK vote to depart the EU bloc, it should expect an unforgiving response from Brussels, which is wary of other nations following suit.

Source:E.U. Countries Warn Britain on ‘Brexit’: You’ll Pay if You Leave Us – The New York Times

The political, economic and social context is clear. With a vote for Brexit, there will be extreme risks and volatility. It is complete nonsense to suggest that the UK will have two years to postulate after a Brexit win. The financial markets are clear, a win for Brexit will signal bad news not just for the UK economy but the world. This is highly significant.

Whilst there are ordinary law-abiding people who are drawn to Brexit, in the coming days they must surely question being associated with Nigel Farage and his racist supporters. Fascism in Europe is on the rise once again. The EU deserves a chance to reform with the UK leading the way from within.

Thoughts?

 

 

2 responses

  1. This article from the New York Times, courtesy of Dr Alf, illustrates the damned if you go risks but not the ones associated with staying.

    To begin with, there will be higher EU budget contributions, and the racing certainty of another contribution to a 4th Greek bailout. Then there is the not inconsiderable matter of the entry of Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Kosovo and Turkey to the EU planned for 2021 with Turkey earmarked for “fast tracking” despite the Prime Ministerial assurances given on Question Time 3 times that “It’s not going to happen” and on Andrew Marr 3 week’s ago when he said “Turkey will not become an EU member until the year 3000”.

    Seats for Turkey have already been physically allocated in the European Parliament building and President Erdogan is already demanding more money on top of the £6.2 billion he has already been given for the Merkel /Tusk /Cameron migrant deal. In addition, he wants at least 1 million work permits for Turks and there is nothing stopping him asking for more.

    Then there is the prospect of further EU enlargement to include friendly North African countries and Israel plus a migrant deal with the African Union for £6.1 billion GBP and a further 1 million work permits or more given that the African Union is 1.2 billion people versus Turkey’s 200 million. Doubtless bright young “Masters of the Universe” from Goldman Sachs are hard at work preparing these new EU accession countries for EU membership with the risk being the temptation to produce fake figures to demonstrate that these countries are ready for EU entry as they did with Greece by creating the impression that that country was a model of financial rectitude when in reality it was bankrupt and unable to meet its debts.

    Then there are the risks that the remaining PIIG countries pose in the form of future bailouts which we will have to contribute to.

    In the event of the UK remaining, we have the problem of increasing electricity generating capacity to deal with future demand from the increased population, a higher housing benefit bill until new houses can be built at affordable prices and the extra costs of imported food since many of our farmers are now out of business.

    These problems and the lack of productivity and work ethic on the part of British workers will have to be faced otherwise Fascism will increase more rapidly than it is at the moment.

    The financial markets will make money from the uncertainty either way but the reality is that the warnings of doom are overblown. First we were told that it would take years to renegotiate new trade deals with the EU now we are told that the 2 year notice period is effectively to be scrapped or ignored and that we will “pay a price” so as to deter others.

    It is time to leave.

    By wishing to do so we will not be transmuting ourselves into Fascists,”associating with Nigel Farage ” ,giving Boris Johnson a blank cheque as much as he might want one.

    • John,

      I respectfully disagree with your logic, reasoning and conclusions.

      In terms of analysis, the base-case is Remain. The alternative case is Brexit.

      There are good predictions underpinning Remain but everything is flakey around Brexit – Brexit supporters know that publishing the economic outlook post Brexit would seriously damage their cause.

      Then it is possible to develop alternative risk scenarios around each primary case. This sort of approach is tried and tested.

      For months now experts have debated whether the outcome of Brexit would be ‘bad’ or ‘very bad’. I, of course, believe that it would range from ‘very bad’ to disastrous’.

      Meanwhile, the points that you make are seriously questionable in terms of probability of outcome.

      The Brexit debate is already too complicated for many voters on Thursday.

      To add one more layer of analysis though, I still feel that a worse case scenario for Remain is far safer than a worse case scenario for Brexit.

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