Politico takes soundings from 17 top economists, foreign policy gurus and historians looking five years into the future.
Despite a prevailing new norm of populism and post truth politics, it’s still worth reflecting on the experts outlook in my view.
Here are their punchlines but I recommend reading the full Politico article:
“In five years, there will no longer be a United Kingdom”
“An EU that … is solidly anchored by a reinvigorated French-German partnership”
Brexit could be a wake-up call, or “it could be 1933 all over again”
“Russia will take satisfaction in the fragmentation to its west”
In five years, the EU will be less of a global force, and the “special relationship” will be stronger
“Our allies lose and our adversaries gain”
“Both the EU and the United Kingdom will grow rapidly”
“The earthquake is political”
“The U.S. might find itself with a stronger, more engaged EU partner”
A strong dollar, trade deficits and rising nationalism
“Many of the short-term problems will be mitigated”
“We could yet see European countries doing what they have done for centuries—physically attack one another”
Businesses have an incentive to lobby Brussels to make the Brexit as amicable as possible.
“A major casualty of Brexit will be the U.S. rebalance of its foreign policy toward Asia”
“England’s participation was never central to the experiment of integration”