Opinion – Why Brexit Might Not Happen at All – The New Yorker

This is an excellent, must-read article by John Cassidy, in the New Yorker. He argues that just four days after the British vote to leave the European Union, there are reasons to doubt whether the referendum result will be implemented.

Source: Why Brexit Might Not Happen at All – The New Yorker

I tend to empathize with much of Cassidy’s argument. I very much rate John Cassidy – he’s an outstanding journalist.

The bottom line is that as the dust settles and reality sets in, people realize that triggering Article 50 is looking increasingly risky for the UK.

The price for access to the European market would be very high – perhaps the UK would be penalized as an example – but most importantly, it is highly questionable whether the UK would ever get the EU to agree to immigration restrictions.

Meanwhile, financial markets are in crisis and credit rating agencies write down the UK’s rating – this will ultimately affect the UK’s borrowing costs and despite all of George’s Osborne’s austerity, there’s still sky-high debt levels. Germany has dealt with many countries under financial pressure and knows how to let them stew in their own juices.


One response

  1. John Cassidy may well be right because having the courage of your convictions and following a course of action through are no longer the characteristics of the UK or its people or the political class. The Referendum decision came as a surprise to me but I knew if the decision was made to leave the EU that unbelievable pressure would be applied to reverse the decision from George Soros acting on the instructions of his master in Waddesdon Manor and from similar people in the City, New York and elsewhere.

    The xenophobia has always been there, simmering below the surface, as I can remember from my childhood aged 4 to 11 when I had to engage in fisticuffs almost daily. David Cameron should never have called the Referendum but should with Osborne have stimulated exports and had the difficult conversations with people about productivity, the size of the public sector, healthcare, police reform, rewards for failure and obesity. Instead they applied austerity for too long and took no measures for growth, thus marginalising a new class of disenfranchised people and leaving them bitter, depressed, angry and without hope. They are called the Precariat and were the subject of an agenda item earlier in the month of the 2016 Bilderberg meeting in Dresden.

    Having had the Referendum, anger has boiled over amongst these people who are stupid and sheeplike but have been thrown to the wolves by politicians of all political stripes and are now reacting to events. If the Referendum result is not to be respected then some hope has to be created and conversations have to start as a prelude to reform.

    Dr Alf may yet see his “fudge” because the political class have little stomach for telling it like it is or reforming anything.

    Thus one might see a new Prime Minister not triggering Article 50, Corporation tax lowered a bit, local authorities made to slim down a bit by a small cap on business rates and a few other small bones to create a little hope within a population that has the memory of a slumbering goldfish and the ability to plan ahead of a Wildebeest. Cameron will soon move on to his new job, George Osborne will move on into a new role and a new Prime Minister will be found who will will probably do nothing at all about Article 50, whilst Nigel Farage will either fade into obscurity or become ill or worse through his chronic drinking.

    Once that happens, the financial markets will recover but the UK’s day of reckoning will be delayed.

    The proposed EU Army will then carry on being developed pretty much unimpeded but EU enlargement will be slowed down to settle the European public a bit.

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