In this brilliantly simple diagram Vox explains why every Brexit option the UK has now is bad.
Is this why Cameron, Johnson and Farage have all resigned?
There are only three outcomes:
- Article 50 Clean Break – consequence crash the UK economy
- EEA + deal – in this scenario, the UK negotiates a deal with the EU, which would allow it to remain in the EEA but would exempt it from other EU rules — most notably, free migration rules – consequence Norway model and no control over immigration
- Annul vote and never trigger Article 50 – consequence possible civil disorder from Brexit supporters
For me, this Venn diagram is helpful in considering the candidates for the leadership of the Conservative Party.
Andrea Leadsom has campaign for an immediate triggering of Article 50 if she wins. So my conclusion is that Leadsom is the most risky in terms of judgement and could well crash the UK economy. We should expect world financial market to go into freefall after a Leadsom win – remember she has had no ministerial experience. Also there are constitutional questions over the PM having the authority to trigger Article 50. If Leadsom went for a full vote in parliament and in all probability lost the vote, she would be weakened. If she respected the will of parliament, she would destroy her popular backing. Perhaps, she might be forced to resign?
Meanwhile, favorite Theresa May has argued for a delayed triggering of Article 50. Whether this will be acceptable to the EU remains to be seen. It has the advantage of letting UK public opinion adjust to the darkening emerging realities. May would have the option of parliament voting on Article 50, then considering a second referendum or a general election. Most importantly, in the event of of annulling the first referendum May would have the experience to address possible civil disorder issues.
In the end, the election of the next Conservative leader is down to the party members. I sense that they are not Little Englanders who will want to crash the UK economy. Also conservatives will want a ‘safe pair of hands’. After all, the risk of terrorist threat to the UK is still very high.