In this outstanding analysis Bruegel explores the policy implications of various Brexit scenarios for the future EU–UK relationship. However, to provide effective trade-off analysis (TOA), at least three additional measures are required for consideration of alternatives scenarios of Hard, Soft, Hybrid or no Brexit.:
- Cost per person
- Probability factor in successfully reducing EU immigration
- Risk factor
Source: Beyond hard, soft and no Brexit | Bruegel
We already know from the Independent that Sterling’s latest sell-off followed reports that Britain could lose £66 billion of tax revenues each year if the UK takes the plunge with a ‘hard Brexit’.
Effective TOA, comparing the scenarios should be submitted to Parliament as a Green Paper, and MPs should be given a vote to define the UK government‘s negotiating limits. Also researchers and the media need to explore the implications of multi-dimensional TOA applied to Brexit.
As a strawman proposition, I suggest that Hard Brexit options will be highest in terms of economic cost and risk but the political benefit of a higher probability of reducing EU immigration will be marginal.