Brexit -Trade Off Analysis: Beyond hard, soft and no Brexit | via Bruegel

In this outstanding analysis Bruegel explores the policy implications of various Brexit scenarios for the future EUUK relationship. However, to provide effective trade-off analysis (TOA), at least three additional measures are required for consideration of alternatives scenarios of Hard, Soft, Hybrid or no Brexit.:

  1. Cost per person
  2. Probability factor in successfully reducing EU immigration
  3. Risk factor

Source: Beyond hard, soft and no Brexit | Bruegel

We already know from the Independent that Sterling’s latest sell-off followed reports that Britain could lose £66 billion of tax revenues each year if the UK takes the plunge with a ‘hard Brexit’.

Effective TOA, comparing the scenarios should be submitted to Parliament as a Green Paper, and MPs should be given a vote to define the UK government‘s negotiating limits. Also researchers and the media need to explore the implications of multi-dimensional TOA applied to Brexit.

As a strawman proposition, I suggest that Hard Brexit options will be highest in terms of economic cost and risk but the political benefit of a higher probability of reducing EU immigration will be marginal.


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