In this excellent editorial from the Guardian, it reports that in the first round in the race for the Élysée, the postwar parties have been humbled and that France has voted for change.
Source: The Guardian view on France’s election: a win for Macron and hope | Editorial | Opinion | The Guardian
The Guardian calls upon the French voters to complete their ‘revolution’ of French politics in round two of the voting. It brilliantly summarizes the choices as follows:
France faces an absolutely straight choice. The contest on 7 May is a contest between openness and bigotry, internationalism and nationalism, optimism and hatred, reaction and reform, hope and fear.
Whilst I agree with the Guardian, that French voters must rally to the support of Macron in the run-off, I am deeply troubled by Macron.
I heard his speech last night and felt that it was full of platitudes and light on policy. Macron is a lightweight, with no political support in parliament. Listening to the BBC’s excellent commentary last night, I was alarmed when conservative parliamentarians calling for a round three victory (the parlientary elections in June). It is not clear how Macron will win seats in parliament, especially when he wants 50% being newcomers to politics.
I fear that whoever wins, the next twelve months will be full of uncertainty because both leading candidates have no power-base in the parliament. It looks like each major policy area will be a major cross part vote because there will be no established party lines. Whilst Macron has the sponsorship of big business and is the most likely next President of France, it is questionable whether he has the leadership and political skills to lead effectively. Most importantly, Macron dreams of a federal Europe and is likely to want to take a hard negotiating line with Brexit.
This is a momentous time for France, Europe and the world that the Guardian is reporting on in this new and interesting post from Dr Alf.
Macron may indeed win eventually but it may not be by a very wide margin and as for his dreams of a Federal Europe, these are becoming more implausible by the day.
The best case scenario is a two-speed Europe, a central core run by Germany as a latter day Holy Roman Empire with an outer ring comprised of bankrupt and troubled vassal states headed up by a liege lord (Macron) reporting to Germany but running France which would in turn watch over the PIIG countries assuming Greece gets bailed out again by the IMF.
The worst case scenario will be an EU split into two distinct units, with only the Northern half paying its way plus a massive influx of new Muslim and African migrants courtesy of President Erdogan the new leader of a revived Ottoman Empire.
Macron’s abilities, like those of Donald Trump, have yet to be tested even assuming he wins and wins by a reasonable margin.
Most of the EU leaders are lightweights, with the exception of Mrs Merkel, whilst our own Prime Minister is a slow footed ditherer who cannot think on her feet and who buckles under concerted pressure rather too easily when it comes from Big business, plutocrats and local authority and NHS fat cats.
Only time will tell what the future of Macron is and 7th May is not that long to wait.