This is a brilliant, must-read blog from the Economist, arguing that Angela Merkel comments on America and Britain were aimed at four distinct audiences.
The four audiences are:
- CSU Party, her political allies
- Wider German electorate, with a general election on September 24
- Rest of Europe, and
- America and Britain, which the Economist reports that the German elites are calling ‘Trumpandbrexit’.
Read the article for yourself and decide if you agree that ‘Angela knows best’. For sure, German voters will readily identify with her worldview. (Meanwhile, in the UK, Theresa May is fighting hard to lose the ‘weak and wobbly’ image after her election U-turns)
BUT it’s alarming that German political classes have bundled Trump and Brexit together, almost as the Anglo-Saxon disease. It’s hard to see matters improving quickly. There are three clarification questions:
- Will Theresa May win the UK election with a strong majority in parliament and a clear political mandate for her Brexit negotiations?
- Will Angela Merkel win power again in the German election and how large will be her majority, assuming that’s she’s again aligned to the CSU?
- By the Autumn, will there be increased pressure to impeach Trump on the basis of his team’s pre-election dealings with Russia?
Watch for Russia and China’s intervention over the Summer to seize geopolitical opportunities from a weakened NATO alliance.
Personally, I hope that the Summer will signal a softening in the Trumpandbrexit crisis and a reduced risk of WWIII?