Opinion – What’s brewing in Germany?: How to understand Angela Merkel’s comments about America and Britain | Blog – The Economist

This is a brilliant, must-read blog from the Economist, arguing that Angela Merkel comments on America and Britain were aimed at four distinct audiences.

What’s brewing in Germany?: How to understand Angela Merkel’s comments about America and Britain | Blog – The Economist

The four audiences are:

  1. CSU Party, her political allies
  2. Wider German electorate, with a general election on September 24
  3. Rest of Europe, and
  4. America and Britain, which the Economist reports that the German elites are calling ‘Trumpandbrexit’.

Read the article for yourself and decide if you agree that ‘Angela knows best’. For sure, German voters will readily identify with her worldview. (Meanwhile, in the UK, Theresa May is fighting hard to lose the ‘weak and wobbly’ image after her election U-turns)

BUT it’s alarming that German political classes have bundled Trump and Brexit together, almost as the Anglo-Saxon disease. It’s hard to see matters improving quickly. There are three clarification questions:

  1. Will Theresa May win the UK election with a strong majority in parliament and a clear political mandate for her Brexit negotiations?
  2. Will Angela Merkel win power again in the German election and how large will be her majority, assuming that’s she’s again aligned to the CSU?
  3. By the Autumn, will there be increased pressure to impeach Trump on the basis of his team’s pre-election dealings with Russia?

Watch for Russia and China’s intervention over the Summer to seize geopolitical opportunities from a weakened NATO alliance.

Personally, I hope that the Summer will signal a softening in the Trumpandbrexit crisis and a reduced risk of WWIII?

Thoughts?

One response

  1. Dr Alf brings us a series of complex conundrums, which herald events which in some ways are almost Biblical in nature.

    What is brewing is a reordering of the old tectonic plates of big power politics and projection, caused partially by Brexit and partially by Trump.

    The ‘5 eyes countries’ which share intelligence are seen by themselves as cousins because they share the same monarch are part of the Commonwealth and have fought in every World War and significant conflict together since 1914 except for Vietnam.

    For Americans, Australians are brothers, the British tiresome allies with good soldiers, and the rest cousins for whom mutual defence is natural. Germany has always been the master of Central Europe since the mid 1800s when she started to rearm through to the period when the Kaiser ordered the Keil Canal to be widened so that E boats could sail through.

    The fear of America and Britain has always been that Germany would then form a rapprochement with its old enemy the Russians to create a massive economic and military rival.

    Thus it suited America and Britain to have a divided Germany with the Western part sitting within NATO where Germany, which they never fully trusted could be watched and controlled.

    Germany never saw itself as one of the 5 “cousins”(America, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK) and now because of Trump’s remarks, Jared’s silence and the silence of others, Germany now sees itself as a “Great Power” again, wanting to be taken seriously. It will build a European Army and it will work harder and faster on building relations with Russia. Merkel will drive this process for a time but will be replaced and whoever comes after her will have to deal with demographic and manufacturing voids by employing automation,robotics ,AI and workers in Eastern Europe rather than Middle Eastern and Muslim migrants.

    May will win her election with a tiny majority and then mess up the negotiations with the EU so that the UK will rejoin EFTA ,Trump could well be impeached or driven from office leaving his daughter Ivanka free to make a run in 2022.

    China will watch and wait and Vladimir Putin will smirk and say that this is nothing to do with him.

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