Bitcoin Bubble? Analysis Suggests More Room to Grow – Bitcoin News

Here’s an interesting article from Bitcoin News. With all the media attention and the skyrocketing price of bitcoin, it is common to hear that bitcoin is in a bubble. However, some analysts disagree.

Source: Bitcoin Bubble? Analysis Suggests More Room to Grow – Bitcoin News

I tend to disagree with this article and the cited evidence.

Trying to value Bitcoin on a PE basis is both naive and simplistic.

Let’s look to basic financial theory to understand the Bitcoin proposition.

There are two important elements.

Firstly, we need to look at projected forward cash flows and discount them back to a present value. Obviously, there are practical challenges in establishing projections. But this is the proper basis, given existing technology and market assumptions.

Then there’s a need to try to evaluate the potential value of technology or market breakthroughs. Finance would value these future contingencies as a warrant.

Otherwise, we are looking at a potential bubble. Throw in other risks, like an imperfect market and there are plenty of opportunities for speculators to get seriously burned.

If you must invest in Bitcoin, take a relatively small investment which you can afford to write off and lose.





Opinion – Theresa May’s failed gamble – Leader – The Economist – John Gelmini

May should go within weeks and be replaced by someone capable of quick thinking, “street-fighting”, decisiveness and strategic thought. I am not sure who that could be but for all our sakes it cannot come soon enough. Nick Timothy, Fiona Hill, Justine Greening and all the weaker ministers, like Rudd, should go as well.

Money for paying down debt and reshaping the country has to be found and the obvious places to start are with the abolition of the Foreign Aid budget (£16 billion GBP), the Barnett Formula( £30 billion GBP) and the money given to the monarchy on top of the civil list. Privatising the BBC, abolishing the House of Lords, replacing it with an accountable 200 person Senate and firing 449 MPs and redrawing constituencies would raise and save more money.

Reducing corporation taxes and increasing writing down allowances should bring in more inward investment, stop companies hiding money offshore and make it easier to export——The country has to start earning its way out of trouble!

This means capping boardroom pay for those directors who could export but steadfastly do nothing other than sit on golf carts, overpay themselves and set an appalling example to their obese, lazy and unproductive workforces. Then we need to export more with unemployed middle managers assigned to export sales and issued with the American style instant translator devices which are pea-sized and allow selling conversations to take place.

Dole and other benefits would be paid to the employer who would top up the wages and then the benefits would be reduced on a 5 year taper as sales came in.

We can no longer afford to have a military recruitment crisis, inadequate policing and young undisciplined people who are not job ready. We need National Service for all young people who would be paid their benefits in exchange but would forgo housing benefit, council tax benefits and free houses in exchange for their illegitimate children and for 2 years would live in barracks, on ships or on military bases where they would live in tents and then construct additional barracks using systems building methods.

The very long term employed would be assigned work as carers and would work with Adult Social Care recipients in their own homes.

Aggressive re-enablement and a regime of enforced weight reduction, smoking cessation, lowered alcohol intake, exercise and reduced vaping would cut Adult Social Care bills by 50% and action on fraud would reduce things even more.

Benefits would cease for the re-enabled leaving just genuine cases which would reduce local authority costs by 25% before any efforts to merge them and create scale economies.

The country in export mode and taking control of its costs would then be better positioned to deal with the EU or become a “colder version of a much bigger Singapore/Switzerland composite” tax haven in the event that the EU tried to punish us or made life unnecessarily difficult.

But firstly, May must go.

John Gelmini