Here’s an insightful article from the Guardian. It argues that Brexit will dominate Queen’s speech shorn of controversial social policies after Conservatives fail to secure deal.

Source: Theresa May under pressure as DUP says: ‘Show some respect’ | Politics | The Guardian

The Guardian clarifies:

The DUP deal is likely to be one of “confidence” (through which the party will back the Queen’s speech and support the government in any confidence votes) and “supply” (referring to support for budgets and financial measures).

Importantly, the article suggests that it won’t just be Theresa May that’s weak and wobbly but the Conservative Minority Government, possibly with a confidence and supply arrangement with DUP. So we have a weak and wobbly Conservative Government until the next election. Even if May’s replaced, the new leader will be wary of calling an election and risk losing.

Let me try to spell out the consecequences;

1. Still a chance that DUP won’t support the Queen’s speech, triggering a minority government or in worst case an election
2. Conservatives will be very dependent on parliament to support Brexit, increasing pressure for a soft Brexit
3. With no social policies, the public sector likely to suffer further service degradation
4. Tax increases likely to offset impact of Brexit and downside risks from further austerity cuts

Thoughts?