Please don’t rely on the UK mainstream media for truth and evidence – it’s too biased. Here’s an excellent guide to the first phase of the Brexit negotiations published by the European Parliamentary Research Service Blog
Of course, worse than the output of the UK mainstream media are the platitudes and false truths from Prime Minister, Theresa May and her Brexit Minister, David Davis. I agree with my friend, and fellow blogger, John Gelmini, that these two are such weak negotiators that the UK will be forced into huge financial penalties and political sacrifices.
At least with the above checklist, you can track May and Davis’s concessions.
These are dangerous times for the UK politically, with massive downside economic risks – look at the increasing number of headlines that cite the word ‘revolution’ in relation to the UK.
I suggest that there are four political forces in play:
- Conservative Party 1922 Committee ready to replace the prime minister if she continues to bungle her leadership and lose ground to Corbyn’s Labour Party – May has limited wiggle room on Brexit
- Right-wing populism, with Nigel Farage, sitting in the wings, ready to step back into the limelight, whipping up support from the Far-Right
- Left-wing populism, with Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour Party, having been hijacked by radical Far-Left activists focused on revolution.
- The strategic political center for democracy, like Macron’s France, currently virtually unoccupied in the UK but looking increasingly attractive to Pro-European Tories and Blairite Labour MPs.
The way forward depends upon emerging contingencies and national events.
Strategists should be able to project a series of scenarios for risk profiling – that’s for another day. But let me share a deep lingering fear, when right-wing populism and left-wing populism converge – a nightmare, with perhaps a new ‘Hitler’, ‘Mussolini’ or ‘Stalin’ emerging in the UK, fanning the ashes of the revolution.