Here’s a rather good blog from Oxford macro-economist, Simon Wren-Lewis.
Wren-Lewis speculates that we’re headed for a very soft Brexit. For me, it’s too early to call. But I do agree with Wren-Lewis, don’t trust the political classes to explain the truth.
Look to hard-evidence and professional risk analysis not political chancers. The bottom line is that whether it’s a hard-Brexit or very soft Brexit, the economic costs will be enormous for generations and the gains will be nebulous in the extreme. The damage is done. Now we must look to the major political parties and how they sell the pup to the UK public. I fear Labour will have more credibility and apart from weaker property prices, highly leveraged UK consumers will need to bargain on eye-watering tax increases.