Dr Alf, refreshed and reinvigorated by the clear air and magnificent scenery in Peru, has had a good opportunity to review the current state of play vis-a-vis Brexit.
On current form, I can see the UK remaining in the EU, as that was what was planned all along.
I tend to think we will have to have an extension to our time, as there will not be time to agree a new deal, even if the 27 European member states were to agree it. Following that extension, we will remain in the EU until it splits into two halves in about 18 to 22 months time, based on its own tensions and the incompatibility of member states economic cycles. The main half, based on “Greater Germany”, Austria, Sweden, France, Holland, Belgium and Finland will be juxtaposed against the Southern half, based on Spain, Portugal, Italy and Greece, plus the Balkan states. The UK would probably do best in EFTA, which will fall outside these blocs, as the Southern bloc would be too limiting and the main half would mean falling under German control. The Germans have already planned for this scenario by bringing back a lot of their gold reserves from America but I see no proper planning here in the UK.
The UK’s ills stem from a disgruntled proletariat, which feels hard done by, unrepresented and has little money. It is made worse by gross inequality, which manifests itself in massively inflated executive pay, wasteful local authorities and a political class bludgeoning expenses on a bigger scale than the scandal exposed by the Daily Telegraph a few years ago. These factors, too few exports, too little productivity, and over expensive public services, plus indifference to the need for reform and efficiency measures for the police, civil service and the NHS, have led to falling living standards amongst the many, and rapidly rising ones for the few in fhe know. his rather than Brexit, is driving the incessant demonstrations and aggressive behaviour although the very stupid want to scapegoat migrants for their plight even though these migrants are doing work which the indigenous proletariat refuse to do or see as “beneath them”.
Mrs May is indifferent to these realities – to the failure to build houses, use systems building and reform the police so that they can fight crime and the need to reintroduce National Service to inculcate discipline in the young population in a country which is now out of control. She must be removed and her tired Cabinet of ‘also-rans’ replaced with younger more telegenic people who get it.
What passes for an Opposition is run by an ageing Trotskyite, who condones institutional anti-Semitism, with a history as a political troublemaker, historically has some highly suspicious associates and most critically no effective leadership qualities. Left-wing activists cite Jeremy Corbyn’s policies but he must be measured by his actions and failures, most noticeably Brexit and anti-Semitism.
Concern about Brexit masks a deeper malaise in the UK, in which deference is gone, and the ruling class seen as venal shysters, freeloaders, parasites and scoundrels. Rather too many of them are seen in this light and not as well-minded people “,trying to do their best”. Politicians of an earlier generation tried to serve their country – now this is seen as quaint, with the Far-Left and the Far-Right actively promoting chaos and revolution.
An element of tangible contrition and behavioural change is needed, and needed fast, otherwise, the UK is in for a very rough ride – politically, economically and socially. I am far less confident than Dr Alf that the UK Government, Parliament and the EU will reach a last-minute compromise to avoid disaster.
The EU was always going to be difficult so as to discourage countries from leaving, particularly net contributors like the UK.
Donald Trump, for all his faults and bombast, told Mrs May how to deal with this but she did not listen.
Israel before it negotiates “creates facts on the ground” ,so does Russia and China.
We seem to imagine that by being reasonable and appealing to a sense of compromise as if we were at a vicarage tea party of the 1950s we will get our way.
Varufakis warned the UK politicians what the EU would do and once again Mrs May and her Cabinet didn’t listen.
If we were going to leave then we needed to be rid of the £35 billion GBP millstone represented by Wales and Scotland and we needed reform of bloated public services.
The politicians abrogated that choice on the bssis of it being too difficult with the result that we cannot pay our way or satisfy the increasingly disgruntled proletariat who feel disenfranchised and betrayed.
I am not happy at Macron’s Machiavellian intrigues any more than you are but even I would have approached matters differently as I can read body language well enough to know that he and a number of his EU colleagues are thoroughly untrustworthy ,someting that Mrs May should have cross checked with competent people who understand “hardball negotiations” .
Now that the negotiations have been transmuted into a series of humilating surrenders for no appreciable benefit I think we will not leave but if we do we are totally unprepared for what lies ahead thanks to gover ment and civil service incompetence.
France is unreformed and will at the same time have to find a home ,where only tjme will tell although the idea of an EU split is not my sole idea,I have heard it o fairly good authority from we placed sources.
Time will tell now that Mrs May has moved towards the idea of an extension with duration to be determined.
Thanks John. I agree that the UK has been humbled by the negotiations. It looks like belatedly Germany recognizes the strategic weakness of how the EU has negotiated with the UK.
As usual, I thank you for sharing your views.
Whilst I identify with much of your argument, I do not necessarily agree with your conclusions.
I accept that both Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn has been monumental failures.
However, I think that you have underplayed the EU’s responsponsibility for this chaos. Whilst I totally disagree with the AfD politics, Dr. Alice Weidel’s recent analysis, I believe was spot-on. She argued that Angela Merkel had the opportunity to toss David Cameron a safety line but she refused, intimidated by pressure from France.
I have enormous respect for modern Germany and her institutions. On the other hand, I fear that France has played a devious game, turning up Brexit pressures to hide from domestic failures within France. France remains unreformed and for that reason I struggle to see how it could co-exist economically with Northern Europe. Most Southern European countries, e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece and Cyprus, have reformed more radically than France. Many argue that France is a bigger economic threat to the EU than Italy.