Brexit could be the best thing that happened to the European Union | World Economic Forum

In this outstanding article by the WEF, the conclusion is that Brexit will be a hard one, which will hit the UK economy and be felt hardest by those who voted for it.

Source: Brexit could be the best thing that happened to the European Union | World Economic Forum

The article recognizes that those that voted for Brexit ignored the economic arguments. By and large, Brexit appealed to older less well educated voters.

English: Official logo of the World Economic F...

English: Official logo of the World Economic Forum. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The arguments in this article are well developed. With the projected economic downsides, it will be interesting to see if voters waiver in the UK’s general election. Remainers seem to be fighting for a softer Brexit but will they gain traction?

Thoughts?

The Guardian view on France’s election: a win for Macron and hope | Editorial | Opinion | The Guardian

In this excellent editorial from the Guardian, it reports that in the first round in the race for the Élysée, the postwar parties have been humbled and that France has voted for change.

Source: The Guardian view on France’s election: a win for Macron and hope | Editorial | Opinion | The Guardian

The Guardian calls upon the French voters to complete their ‘revolution’ of French politics in round two of the voting. It brilliantly summarizes the choices as follows:

France faces an absolutely straight choice. The contest on 7 May is a contest between openness and bigotry, internationalism and nationalism, optimism and hatred, reaction and reform, hope and fear.

Whilst I agree with the Guardian, that French voters must rally to the support of Macron in the run-off, I am deeply troubled by Macron.

I heard his speech last night and felt that it was full of platitudes and light on policy. Macron is a lightweight, with no political support in parliament. Listening to the BBC’s excellent commentary last night, I was alarmed when conservative parliamentarians calling for a round three victory (the parlientary elections in June). It is not clear how Macron will win seats in parliament, especially when he wants 50% being newcomers to politics.

I fear that whoever wins, the next twelve months will be full of uncertainty because both leading candidates have no power-base in the parliament. It looks like each major policy area will be a major cross part vote because there will be no established party lines. Whilst Macron has the sponsorship of big business and is the most likely next President of France, it is questionable whether he has the leadership and  political skills to lead effectively. Most importantly, Macron dreams of a federal Europe and is likely to want to take a hard negotiating line with Brexit.

Thoughts?