Opinion – The Guardian view on France’s election: a win for Macron and hope | Editorial | Opinion | The Guardian – John Gelmini

This is a momentous time for France, Europe and the world that the Guardian is reporting on in this new and interesting post from Dr Alf.

Macron may indeed win eventually but it may not be by a very wide margin and as for his dreams of a Federal Europe, these are becoming more implausible by the day.

The best case scenario is a two-speed Europe, a central core run by Germany as a latter-day Holy Roman Empire with an outer ring comprised of bankrupt and troubled vassal states headed up by a liege lord (Macron) reporting to Germany but running France which would in turn watch over the PIIG countries assuming Greece gets bailed out again by the IMF.

The worst case scenario will be an EU split into two distinct units, with only the Northern half paying its way plus a massive influx of new Muslim and African migrants courtesy of President Erdogan the new leader of a revived Ottoman Empire.

Macron’s abilities, like those of Donald Trump, have yet to be tested even assuming he wins and wins by a reasonable margin.

Most of the EU leaders are lightweights, with the exception of Mrs Merkel, whilst our own Prime Minister is a slow-footed ditherer who cannot think on her feet and who buckles under concerted pressure rather too easily when it comes from Big business, plutocrats and local authority and NHS fat cats.

Only time will tell what the future of Macron is and 7th May is not that long to wait.

John Gelmini

The UK economy under a Conservative Chancellor has performed worse than any other OECD economy besides Greece

According to evidence from Oxford economist, Simon Wren-Lewis, the UK economy under a Conservative Chancellor has performed worse than any other OECD economy besides Greece.

Source: mainly macro: Breaking the ‘strong economy’ narrative

It’s worth speculating on the next five years under another Conservative Government who seem ready to settle on a Hard-Brexit. The years since the 2008 Financial Crisis will probably be remembered fondly. I fear that the outlook is bleak.

After all, until now the Conservatives have been in a coalition or just had a slim majority. With a resounding 100+ majority, the Conservatives will perhaps push the UK to a full-blown Greek disaster? Surely, Theresa May doesn’t have the leadership qualities to achieve radical reform?