Brexit -Trade Off Analysis: Beyond hard, soft and no Brexit | via Bruegel

In this outstanding analysis Bruegel explores the policy implications of various Brexit scenarios for the future EUUK relationship. However, to provide effective trade-off analysis (TOA), at least three additional measures are required for consideration of alternatives scenarios of Hard, Soft, Hybrid or no Brexit.:

  1. Cost per person
  2. Probability factor in successfully reducing EU immigration
  3. Risk factor

Source: Beyond hard, soft and no Brexit | Bruegel

We already know from the Independent that Sterling’s latest sell-off followed reports that Britain could lose £66 billion of tax revenues each year if the UK takes the plunge with a ‘hard Brexit’.

Effective TOA, comparing the scenarios should be submitted to Parliament as a Green Paper, and MPs should be given a vote to define the UK government‘s negotiating limits. Also researchers and the media need to explore the implications of multi-dimensional TOA applied to Brexit.

As a strawman proposition, I suggest that Hard Brexit options will be highest in terms of economic cost and risk but the political benefit of a higher probability of reducing EU immigration will be marginal.


Opinion – Cuts to public health risks widening health inequalities – News from Parliament – UK Parliament – John Gelmini

English: NHS logo

English: NHS logo (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dr Alf makes telling points but the truth is that health inequalities have been and are directly related to income inequalities, education and employment.

It is no accident that wealthy people in Sandbanks, Dorset and Kensington, London, live a lot longer and more healthily than the poor of Tyneside and the unemployed living in a London bedsit.

The NHS is on the brink of financial implosion, with £30 billion GBP’s worth of debts because of grossly inept financial management and the abuse of services by pensioners cluttering up GP surgeries when there is nothing wrong with them and the failure of the obese, the stupid and the drunk and drugged to moderate their behavior and consumption in order to take better care of themselves.

Clearly if people eat too much, eat the wrong foods, drink to excess, take recreational drugs, engage in bizarre and unusual practices, drink on an empty stomach, ingest car fumes, fail to exercise, get too little sleep then they will become ill, depressed and demented. They will strain their hearts and through vaping, cigarette smoking and exposure to plastics and chemicals give themselves cancer, something which now affects 50% of the population and which if serious will cost the NHS £1 million GBP a patient.

The politicians are not honest about any of this and should fire most of the present NHS management who are not up to the job.

Then the whole rotten edifice needs to be replaced with a better system run on German and Singaporean lines, combined with some straight talking about diet, lifestyle and exercise and the limits of any healthcare system to be able to cope with gross stupidity and blatant disregard for personal health and well-being displayed by rather too many people.

Income inequality is going to take generations to fix and in this country never will be unless executive pay for doing nothing is reigned in and capped at a maximum multiple of average earnings.

Health inequality will therefore persist but can be improved through re-education and the reintroduction of national service and a more disciplined, self reliant culture based on Judeo-Christian ethics, stoicism and self improvement.

John Gelmini