Tag Archives: Andrew Marr

Opinion – First Stage Reality and Brexiters – Mainly Macro – Simon Wren-Lewis

December 11, 2017 By in Brexit, Business Administration, Far Left, Politics Tags: , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment
David Davis MP (Conservative). (Photo: Robert ...

David Davis MP (Conservative). (Photo: Robert Sharp / English PEN) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Here’s a rather good blog from Oxford macro-economist, Simon Wren-Lewis.

Source: First Stage Reality and Brexiters – Mainly Macro – Simon Wren-Lewis

Wren-Lewis speculates that we’re headed for a very soft Brexit. For me, it’s too early to call. But I do agree with Wren-Lewis, don’t trust the political classes to explain the truth.

Look to hard-evidence and professional risk analysis not political chancers. The bottom line is that whether it’s a hard-Brexit or very soft Brexit, the economic costs will be enormous for generations and the gains will be nebulous in the extreme. The damage is done. Now we must look to the major political parties and how they sell the pup to the UK public. I fear Labour will have more credibility and apart from weaker property prices, highly leveraged UK consumers will need to bargain on eye-watering tax increases.

After all, did you see David Davis‘ eyes on the Andrew Marr show?

Thoughts?

 

 

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Opinion – EU referendum: Labour warns of Brexit emergency budget – BBC News – John Gelmini

June 11, 2016 By in Austerity, Brexit, Business Administration, Economics, People, Politics Tags: , , , , , , , , , Leave a comment
Non EU

Non EU (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Now we are told about the possibility of an “emergency budget” following a Brexit vote in this piece by the Guardian from Dr Alf. To begin with, there is a two-year transition period during which orderly negotiations are going to have to take place with competent and aggressive negotiators taking the lead not limp wristed and cowardly Ministers and civil servants who have forgotten where this country’s interests lie.

So nothing will change immediately and there is no need for an emergency budget unless the Government has been lying about the state of the nation’s finances.

We buy 10 times as much from the EU as it buys from us and what little foreign exchange we earn from exports to the EU are largely to the Irish Republic. We lose more than we make because of the Corporation tax losses via the Dublin Financial District so we have tremendous bargaining leverage which so far we seem afraid to use.

Following Remain, the likely outcome we can expect announcements on the EU Army, increased budget contributions, and a £6.1 billon GBP deal on migration with Africa. The poor, the disaffected and the marginalised are in for a rude awakening and the housing crisis will boil over into civil unrest once the true extent of additional immigration and related infrastructure costs become known by 2025.

John Gelmini