Opinion – Read Original National Audit Office Report – HM Treasury’s economic analysis in the lead-up to the referendum on European Union membership

Paul Krugman, Laureate of the Sveriges Riksban...

Paul Krugman, Laureate of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2008 at a press conference at the Swedish Academy of Science in Stockholm (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Londres - HM Treasury

Londres – HM Treasury (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

If you’re tired of the inherent bias in the UK’s mainstream media, read the NAO’s report into HM Treasury’s economic analysis in the lead-up to the referendum on European Union membership. This is important because the Brexit referendum was secured on basis of promoting fear of immigration, rampant xenophobia, and false news, rather than independent evidence and risk analysis.

Source: HM Treasury’s economic analysis in the lead-up to the referendum on European Union membership

Obviously, the terms of reference and political interpretation of the HMT results will demonstrate an element of bias. But the Treasury’s basic methodology was sound, its assumptions reasonable and clearly defined – in short, a professional piece of work. The NAO report highlights the HMT economic analysis compared to other independent studies. It’s perfectly reasonable for the projected results to vary based upon assumptions and modelling methodology.

What is important is the generalized conclusion, rather than the precise metric.

The world’s leading economists, including Nobel Prize Winning, Paul Krugman, have argued that the medium to long-term cataclysmic outlook following Brexit is water-tight. Depending upon the terms of the Brexit, leaving the EU will damage the UK economically for years into the future. Finance theory allows us to capitalize the impact of a future cashflow at the prevailing cost of capital and provide a one-time net present value, or simply a one-time cost of the decision. Last year, I did this calculation and it was eye-watering – it’s a shame that it was not highlighted by the UK’s outrageously biased media.

Secondly, there is the short-term economic impact following the Brexit decision. Here’s there is more room for doubt as a wider range of assumptions comes into play.

But what is clear is that the medium to long-term impact of Brexit will be tragic, disasterous, calamitous, dire and ruinous, penalizing future generations.

For deeper coverage, I recommend the following earlier blogs:

So what should be done to redress the catastrophic damage done by false news from deeply biased politicians and media, promoting self-interest ahead of national well-being?


Opinion – Cameron pulls off a surprise win: What now for Europe and Scotland? | Brookings Institution – John Gelmini

Dr Alf brings us yet more reaction from the world’s media and think-tanks about the Conservative election win.

We are told it was a “surprise”, when in fact incumbents who are seen to have started to grow their economies and create jobs usually win. Paddy Power the bookmakers and the Sovereign Wealth Funds and plutocrats who bought all the Government gilts well before the election knew what the outcome was going to be. The truth is that the BBC, the chattering classes and the champagne socialists in Islington and Hampstead have been given a bloody nose, along with the tofu eating, sandal wearing Guardian readers, closet Druids, climate change proponents and those who favor de-industrialization and profligacy.

£30 billion gbp in savings in the public sector is easily possible given the amount of fraud, waste and overmanning that exists. We do not need 43 English constabularies, 43 Fire commands, an unreformed NHS which delivers the worst healthcare and cancer treatment outcomes in Western Europe outside of Greece. We do not need more than 15000 civil servants and we do not need the cost of delivering services to be 3 times the Singaporean cost. Indeed that country sells its model of Governance to other interested countries as a revenue earner.

The Scots need to have their bluff called by being given all the tax raising powers they want and having Trident retained. Currently they want Trident scrapped and the money given to the SNP so David Cameron should say no to scrapping it, close the Scottish bases and create the jobs lost in Scotland in England. The Barnett Formula needs to be scrapped and then Nicola Sturgeon would not be able to get a vote for independence for Scotland because with the price of North Sea oil so low people there would know that there was no more money to pay for independence even with tax raising powers.

The political pendulum in the UK is swinging towards a measure of commonsense and people know in their hearts that we have to earn our way in the world and that benefit recipients, incapacity benefit recipients and those who turn to foodbanks will become a reducing minority – they must of course be helped to move towards the first group and for a proper safety net for the genuinely needy.

John Gelmini