Buy to let « Dr Alf's Blog

English: Chart of UK net migration, 1991-2008 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)



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ONS, the UK’s national statistical authority, reports a 3.6% fall in construction in March, with both new work and repair & maintenance both falling by 3.6%. See the data first hand, without any editorial bias.

Source: Construction output in Great Britain: Mar 2016 and Jan to Mar 2016 – Office for National Statistics

For me, this is further evidence of alarm over the risks of a Brexit. I expect that the negative economic news will accelerate quickly in the final weeks to the Brexit referendum.

Ironically, it’s shortage of housing that is driving the xenophobic supporters to favor Brexit. The simplistic assumption that foreigners will disappear and houses will become more available for the indigenous population is weak. Firstly, foreigners are needed because they have the skills that the British workers do not. Secondly, following a Brexit decision, the Brexit supporters will not want to invest in property because the market will be spiraling downwards. Thirdly, there won’t be any council or assisted housing for those on benefits because of savage emergency cuts to the UK’s budget to avoid and uncontrolled nose-dive as international confidence in the UK evaporates.

Thoughts?

English: Chart of inflation-adjusted UK house prices, 1975-2009. Data sourced from Nationwide building society (Photo credit: Wikipedia)



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The Mirror reports that the party’s over in London, with a top industry body predicting the capital will be beaten by SIX other regions when it comes to house price rises next year.

Source: London is SO last year – Where house prices will grow fastest in 2016 – Mirror Online

Meanwhile, most UK papers are featuring articles on the RICS outlook for UK house prices in 2016

This is familiar territory for older readers. It’s a game of property musical chairs. The rules are something like this. Beg, steal or borrow a deposit to buy your first home and get on the ladder. Borrow the maximum. As higher interest rates start to bite, top up credit lines with credit card and other loans. Then there’s an economic downturn and the weakest go into negative equity and fall off the ladder – the weakest having joined the property ladder last before the market dives.

On the macro scale, UK consumer confidence will be inflated by expected house price inflation. The Bank of England will struggle to avoid the next bubble bursting.

Meanwhile, George Osborne has not done enough to promote real economic growth. What about up-skilling, investment in technology and focus on exports?

Of course, part of the housing problem in the UK is supply related. Osborne has made life considerably more difficult for buy-to-let landlords, so I’d expect to see more landlords liquidating their housing stock – this will increase supply.

Housing is a major political issue in the UK because young people are increasing deprived of their first home, unless they are privileged and have wealthy parents. If Jeremy Corbyn focuses upon a radical housing policy, perhaps he’ll be the UK’s next prime minister?

Thoughts?