IMF forecasts Chinese economy to grow at 6.6% in 2016 – People’s Daily Online


English: Logo of the People's Daily 中文: 人民日报题字

English: Logo of the People’s Daily 中文: 人民日报题字 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

China’s influential newspaper, Peoples’ Daily, reports the IMF forecast in its newly-released World Economic Outlook and Global Financial Stability Report. It highlights that China’s GDP growth is projected to be 6.6 percent in 2016 before moderating to 6.2 percent in 2017.

Source: IMF forecasts Chinese economy to grow at 6.6% in 2016 – People’s Daily Online

This is good news for China, highlighting that China is overhauling its economy effectively and minimizing the risk. No doubt Western China experts will still be highlighting the risks in the coming days. But the IMF forecast is independent and respected – this is why China is promoting the news.


Brexit – Cosmopolitans, Ostriches, Lemmings & the Pied Piper

Male and Female ostriches Cape Point

Male and Female ostriches Cape Point (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: A dead lemming on a stone in the rive...

English: A dead lemming on a stone in the river Revåa in Norway. Lemmings migrate in large numbers across the landscape, stopping for nobody. When they have to cross a river of some size, some lemmings will die. Every few years so many lemmings die this way that drinking the water from the streams becomes a health hazard to people hiking in the mountains. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

After months of following alternative viewpoints on Brexit, both in the mainstream and social media, I have decided that it is time to clarify my own views.

Firstly, it’s necessary to state my bias. From the beginning, I have been a passionate European. Despite some misgivings about the size of the bureaucracy and the favored status of Germany and France, I still passionately believe that the UK should remain in the EU and be pivotal in its leadership. I am a UK national and an expat, currently resident in Cyprus. Much of my career, I have lived and worked on Continental Europe. For most of my life I have been cosmopolitan in my beliefs and outlook.

For me, there is overwhelming economic evidence from gold standard sources, like the International Monetary Fund, that the economic outcome post Brexit will range from bad to very bad. The uncertainty is based upon the new trading relationships which could take years to negotiate and trigger panic and fear. These are serious and quantifiable risks.

The Brexit campaigners have failed to publish economic projections or risk assessment for fear of losing a huge numbers of votes. The Brexit campaign is focused on quaint and dated concepts of sovereignty and fanned by xenophobia. The Brexit team is not being led by a Churchill or Thatcher with deep political convictions – there are too many opportunists whose political aspirations influence their argument.

Being in the UK for a few weeks, I am encouraged by young people but alarmed at the views of many of my age.

In my view, the Brexiteers are like ostriches burying their heads in the sand – they are blind or oblivious to the risks. If Brexiteers win, the ostriches will transform into lemmings and we shall watch them die. Or if you want a third metaphor, think about the children who followed the Pied Piper of Hamlin.

Illustration from The Pied Piper of Hamelin

Illustration from The Pied Piper of Hamelin (Photo credit: Wikipedia)