Opinion – U.K. Thinks Barnier Bluffing on No Brexit Deal for Banks – Bloomburg Politics

The problem with Theresa May thinking that Barnier's bluffing, is twofold: (1) May's team are the weaker negotiators;  and (2) the UK has the weakest hand. The conclusion is that May's too weak to bluff effectively in return. The Bloomburg Politics article is worth a read.

Source: U.K. Thinks Barnier Bluffing on No Brexit Deal for Banks – Bloomburg Politics

I’m still expecting one of two extreme Brexit outcomes: (1) A very hard Brexit; or (2) a very soft Brexit.

The Conservatives look like they’ll impale themselves on Brexit, with very unpopular terms and lose the next election, ushering into the UK’s first Marxist Government. But Tony Blair is again challenging Labour for being too weak on Brexit. It’s understandable that Labour’s trying to keep its powder dry but the powder may soon pass the expiry date. Perhaps the UK will avoid a Marxist government but with another Conservative government, post Brexit, expect a massive ramp up in austerity and further cut back in public services. Tony Blair’s international think tank is a must read for summarizing the prevailing evidence.




Opinion – First Stage Reality and Brexiters – Mainly Macro – Simon Wren-Lewis

David Davis MP (Conservative). (Photo: Robert ...

David Davis MP (Conservative). (Photo: Robert Sharp / English PEN) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Here’s a rather good blog from Oxford macro-economist, Simon Wren-Lewis.

Source: First Stage Reality and Brexiters – Mainly Macro – Simon Wren-Lewis

Wren-Lewis speculates that we’re headed for a very soft Brexit. For me, it’s too early to call. But I do agree with Wren-Lewis, don’t trust the political classes to explain the truth.

Look to hard-evidence and professional risk analysis not political chancers. The bottom line is that whether it’s a hard-Brexit or very soft Brexit, the economic costs will be enormous for generations and the gains will be nebulous in the extreme. The damage is done. Now we must look to the major political parties and how they sell the pup to the UK public. I fear Labour will have more credibility and apart from weaker property prices, highly leveraged UK consumers will need to bargain on eye-watering tax increases.

After all, did you see David Davis‘ eyes on the Andrew Marr show?