Some thoughts on the wider implications following John McCain’s Pravda article – John Gelmini

John McCain's flight suit as shown at the Hano...

John McCain’s flight suit as shown at the Hanoi Hilton, Ho Chi Minh City. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dr Alf is correct to say that the Pravda article attacks John McCain personally rather than his arguments about the lack of freedom in Russia.This however does not diminish the fact that the British public, the majority of people in America and most people in Europe are heartily sick of interminable wars fought on false pretenses and where we have no real business. The current Syrian crisis is about a number of things which relate to geopolitics:

1) The Syrian, Iran, Iraq pipeline which avoids Turkey altogether;

2) Turkey’s own ambitions to supplant Iran as a regional power and join the EU;

3) Saudi Arabia’s and Qatar’s desire to establish a new Caliphate across the Globe;

4)Israel’s recent major discoveries of oil and its legitimate desire to become an energy producer in its own right;

5) America, Britain and France’s desire to reorder the Middle Eastern chessboard, as a precursor to destabilizing and “taking down” a number of regimes, including weakening the growing influence of China and Russia;

6) Russia and China’s desire to prevent 5;

7) Russia’s desire to retain the Port of Tartus.

Senator McCain should be carefully listened to on the basis of the quality of his arguments and on that basis ,his thinking,forged in the horrors of the Vietnam War and his incarceration in the Hanoi Hilton prison is right on matters of individual liberty.It is however wrong on matters of geopolitics where new thinking about the new realities has to be brought to bear if we are to make meaningful progress.

John Gelmini

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I disagree with Senator McCain on US policy on Syria – John Gelmini

English: John McCain official photo portrait.

English: John McCain official photo portrait. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

In his blog entitled “Obama to halt attack if Syria destroys chemical weapons – FT.com“, Dr Alf  indicated that he agreed with Senator McCain who said that “Congress should vote for air strikes in order to “give the president additional leverage to press Russia and Syria to make good on their proposal”.

Here is my own view.

Senator McCain has been in favor of every war that America has been involved in since he was shot down as an air-force pilot over Vietnam and imprisoned in the Hanoi Hilton for five years.

Syria will not destroy its chemical weapons and has every incentive to hang onto them if America is going to order cruise missile strikes anyway. Giving these chemical weapons up does not strengthen Assad’s hand; it weakens it because by keeping them, he has a card to play and in the event of a Western attack some of the stockpiles could be hit causing death through chemical weapons unintentionally.

The Pentagon knew years ago that they would need at least 75,000 troops to invade Syria and has already planned for that eventuality as other troops from Turkey and France would make up the balance of the invasion force.

Matters will not end with cruise missile strikes and Assad, brutal dictator that he is, has a right to defend his country from outside attack.

If the West kills him and all his followers it then means it has to find a strong leader to replace him who is our puppet and will crush the Al Qaeda related elements such as Al Nusra who are our sworn enemies and who wish to create a Caliphate across the entire world controlled by Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Russia does not want to lose the Port of Tartus and cannot be seen to back down easily.

Air strikes against Syria will not make them more compliant as Senator McCain seems to think, but it will make them angry and give them an incentive to create trouble for us at a later stage. It will lead to a much wider Middle East war, casualties on a much larger scale than the chemical attack at Gouta, higher oil prices, Europe and America tipped back into recession and the advancement of Wahibi style Islamic terrorism to our detriment.

China, similarly will not forget and will in its own time, which could be decades later, make the West pay. One of their Generals put it this way “We nurse our sense of grievance and wait”.

Unlike Dr Alf, with whom I usually agree, I think that we should mind our own business and attend to our own problems. This is because as General Martin Dempsey, America’s top general said before he was leaned on, “Attacking Syria leaves us with no good options and is not in America’s best interests”.

John Gelmini

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