Hu Jintao « Dr Alf's Blog

Here’s an insightful Reuters article from Beijing, published in the Japan Times. When Kim Jong Un inherited power in North Korea in late 2011, then-Chinese President Hu Jintao was outwardly supportive of the untested young leader, predicting that “traditional friendly cooperation” between the countries would strengthen. But it cautions that two years later, Kim ordered the execution of his uncle Jang Song Thaek, the country’s chief interlocutor with China and a relatively reform-minded official in the hermetic state.

Source: China, urged to rein in North Korea, actually has little sway, diplomats say | The Japan Times

For the moment, China seems reluctant to intervene too strongly with Korea, especially in relation to oil sanctions. China is North Korea’s main trading partner but there’s speculation that Iran is helping North Korea with it’s nuclear weapon development.

Both the US and North Korea have leaders with large egos. Let’s hope that others can offer ‘carrot’ solutions.

Thoughts?

English: Chinese leader Jiang Zemin signature. 中文: 中国国家主席江泽民的签名。 (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Jiang Zemin is popular with the Chinese military, who favour taking a much harder line against America and the West.

Xi is more popular with the people and despite recent economic difficulties is tough and fleet of foot enough to stay ahead of the curve, reposition the Chinese economy and thus be in a position to allow the military buildup to continue at 11.5% a year.

Rooting out corruption gives ordinary people hope and it helps to move China up the various UN indices such as HDI and the Corruption Perception index.

These are critical to ratings agencies and to inward investors considering where to put their money in one country versus another.

My money is on Xi as the more farsighted and strategic of the two men who the West would find it easiest to do business with in the long run and who our leaders will have to deal with for good or ill.

Dr Alf may see the situation differently, with the rivalry creating internal strife in the “Middle Kingdom”, and some Western leaders may see an opportunity for mischief making. In the present volatile state of the world these Western leaders should be careful what they wish for and remain unattached but vigilant.

John Gelmini