The World Beyond Europe Does Not Favour Brexit | Chatham House

English: Chatham House At the north-west corne...

English: Chatham House At the north-west corner of St James’s Square is the home of the Royal Institute of International Affairs. Three former Prime Ministers have lived here – Pitt the Elder, Lord Derby and William Gladstone. http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/ (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Top international affairs think-tank, Chatham House, argues that a stock-take of international developments and perspectives contradicts the Brexit narrative on two levels.

Source: The World Beyond Europe Does Not Favour Brexit | Chatham House

Based in London, Chatham House is one of the most respected international think tanks in the world.

The latest article will challenge the credibility of the Brexit case that the UK can negotiate new trade deals outside Europe.

Brexit risks a rapid reduction of trade and investment with the simplistic Little Englander ideas of going it alone without the EU.

The Brexit leaders are too afraid to publish economic projections and risk assessments – they know that they’ll lose views with escalating fear levels. Most of their arguments are flaky, especially in relation to Britain finding new markets. Where is the Brexit team’s evidence?

Thoughts?

Brexit – Cosmopolitans, Ostriches, Lemmings & the Pied Piper

Male and Female ostriches Cape Point

Male and Female ostriches Cape Point (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: A dead lemming on a stone in the rive...

English: A dead lemming on a stone in the river Revåa in Norway. Lemmings migrate in large numbers across the landscape, stopping for nobody. When they have to cross a river of some size, some lemmings will die. Every few years so many lemmings die this way that drinking the water from the streams becomes a health hazard to people hiking in the mountains. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

After months of following alternative viewpoints on Brexit, both in the mainstream and social media, I have decided that it is time to clarify my own views.

Firstly, it’s necessary to state my bias. From the beginning, I have been a passionate European. Despite some misgivings about the size of the bureaucracy and the favored status of Germany and France, I still passionately believe that the UK should remain in the EU and be pivotal in its leadership. I am a UK national and an expat, currently resident in Cyprus. Much of my career, I have lived and worked on Continental Europe. For most of my life I have been cosmopolitan in my beliefs and outlook.

For me, there is overwhelming economic evidence from gold standard sources, like the International Monetary Fund, that the economic outcome post Brexit will range from bad to very bad. The uncertainty is based upon the new trading relationships which could take years to negotiate and trigger panic and fear. These are serious and quantifiable risks.

The Brexit campaigners have failed to publish economic projections or risk assessment for fear of losing a huge numbers of votes. The Brexit campaign is focused on quaint and dated concepts of sovereignty and fanned by xenophobia. The Brexit team is not being led by a Churchill or Thatcher with deep political convictions – there are too many opportunists whose political aspirations influence their argument.

Being in the UK for a few weeks, I am encouraged by young people but alarmed at the views of many of my age.

In my view, the Brexiteers are like ostriches burying their heads in the sand – they are blind or oblivious to the risks. If Brexiteers win, the ostriches will transform into lemmings and we shall watch them die. Or if you want a third metaphor, think about the children who followed the Pied Piper of Hamlin.

Illustration from The Pied Piper of Hamelin

Illustration from The Pied Piper of Hamelin (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

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