Opinion – The Year That Makes or Breaks Brexit – Bloomburg Politics

From each according to his ability, to each ac...

From each according to his ability, to each according to his need (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Here’s a recommended read from Bloomburg Politics that speculates on the probability of a Labour Government negotiated soft Brexit in 2018.

Source: The Year That Makes or Breaks Brexit – Bloomburg Politics

The article highlights the different options available. Clearly, the EU continues to hold the stronger negotiating position.

Personally, I have very little confidence that Theresa May‘s government will conclude a good deal.

For me, there’s still a good chance of a very hard Brexit or a very soft Brexit. Either way, there’s a probability of a Marxist government in No. 10.


Opinion – First Stage Reality and Brexiters – Mainly Macro – Simon Wren-Lewis

David Davis MP (Conservative). (Photo: Robert ...

David Davis MP (Conservative). (Photo: Robert Sharp / English PEN) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Here’s a rather good blog from Oxford macro-economist, Simon Wren-Lewis.

Source: First Stage Reality and Brexiters – Mainly Macro – Simon Wren-Lewis

Wren-Lewis speculates that we’re headed for a very soft Brexit. For me, it’s too early to call. But I do agree with Wren-Lewis, don’t trust the political classes to explain the truth.

Look to hard-evidence and professional risk analysis not political chancers. The bottom line is that whether it’s a hard-Brexit or very soft Brexit, the economic costs will be enormous for generations and the gains will be nebulous in the extreme. The damage is done. Now we must look to the major political parties and how they sell the pup to the UK public. I fear Labour will have more credibility and apart from weaker property prices, highly leveraged UK consumers will need to bargain on eye-watering tax increases.

After all, did you see David Davis‘ eyes on the Andrew Marr show?