Here’s an excellent article in the WSJ. Although being US President was Donald Trump‘s first political office, he’s no stranger to the Machiavellian black arts, and is consolidating and strengthening his powerbase very effectively – even the Chinese media are grudgingly respecting Trump’s successes. But it’s very much ‘Eyes Right’, America First – these policies will have widespread implications both domestically and internationally. We should expect raised political risk to increasingly impact on global investment decisions and financial markets, possibly curtailing global growth curves. Against this background, the UK’s anemic Brexit induced growth forecasts could soon turn into negative territory, signalling the start of a deep recession. Thoughts?
The dilemma cited is whether the US would take military action against North Korea, if South Korea or Japan were attacked, if there was a risk of retaliary missiles attacks on US citites, like Los Angeles or Washington.
Of course, the left-leaning NYT goes on to cite Trump as fueling the uncertainty.
The argument is not about the US reneging on its defense agreements, it’s more about US political leadership holding back and putting American interests first.
But if you lived in South Korea or Japan, wouldn’t you want some insurance in case Trump or his successor was slow to act?