Opinion – The Guardian view on the Tory-DUP deal: Theresa May is in denial | Editorial | Opinion | The Guardian – John Gelmini

Like Dr Alf I worry because May seems to talk as though she has a full hand of cards but does not recognise when those on the other side of the desk are stonewalling and in effect waiting for her to be toppled.

Practically all the decisions she has made have been the wrong ones, the calling of an unnecessary election, it being called during term time when younger people could vote, changing the manifesto to make her own natural supporters angry and taking too long to do nothing to prepare the country for BREXIT.

Preparing the country for BREXIT should have meant not having an election, BBC privatisation, selling off Channel 4 and abolishing the House of Lords whilst replacing it with a Senate of 200 people who actually do some work. Also it should have meant Boundary Commission changes to reduce MP numbers and reshaping the tax system to lower corporation taxes, increase writing down allowances and make inward investment and exporting attractive activities.

Instead she has squandered all of that opportunity and will soon be out of a job once the 1922 Committee wake up to the fact that in the BREXIT negotiations she and Davis are getting nowhere and are conceding everything.

First you create “facts on the ground” then you talk from strength but with May she talks from weakness but pretends its strength.

To turn the situation around, the Conservatives probably need to skip a generation and replace the Cabinet and May with fresher much younger faces, rather than the ageing has beens like Davis, Fox and Damian Green.

Until this is done the BBC who screen Glastonbury and most of the major pop concerts will continue to allow Corbyn and Momentum to electioneer and reach out to younger and middle aged voters at these events whilst at the same time pretending that they are reporting impartially.

The Conservatives have at least two very effective Black MPs and should try to bring at least one of them forward; instead they talk up “Spreadsheet Phil” as a caretaker Prime Minister and allow Priti Patel to tell ‘porkies’ to Robert Peston, as she did on Sunday in the most barefaced display of dissembling body language and words. Robert Peston uncharacteristically told her that what people didn’t like in their politicians was out and out lying but this squanderer of foreign aid money persisted whilst Robert Peston’s reddening cheeks belied his barely concealed anger at this brazen woman.

I suspect that if things go on as they are the EU negotiations will fail and yes the Conservative Party could easily split into two whilst Labour /Momentum will push out all moderate elements because at the moment Jeremy Corbyn doesn’t need them.

Boris the ageing young pretender to the poisoned chalice of UK Prime Ministership is waiting in the wings but like May dithers too long and may have missed his chance; Rudd is hopeless so the Conservatives for once in their lives need to be really bold.

Harold MacMillan used to talk about “events” and by implication how leaders rise to the challenge they represent. May has had the Grenfell fire and failed to rise to the challenge. We have had radical Muslims on the rampage but again no robust action follows the fine speeches. We have had the train drivers dispute now dragging on for its 3rd year but again like Nero, she fiddles whilst “Rome burns”. Now we have yet another cyber attack from either the Russian GRU or the Chinese Peoples Liberation Army’s 5 million cyber warriors with May saying and doing precisely nothing. This latest cyber attack once again reveals our national weakness and the contempt with which Russia, China or whoever it was this time views our ability to counter asymetric warfare. This time it was MP’s mailboxes but next time it could be logistics chains which ensure food supplies get to where they are needed or our major ports but affecting exports only.

As things stand the BREXIT negotiations are doomed to failure and we may well find ourselves in the EU for years to come unless it implodes under the weight of Greek, Italian and Portuguese debt.

In the meantime, the DUP who have already done a backroom deal with the Irish Government can sit pretty until May goes and her successor moves into the very shaky “Box seat”.

Dr Alf is right, we need radical political solutions to stop a revolutionary, radical Far-Left government.

John Gelmini

Opinion – The Brexit negotiations: Issues for the first phase | European Parliamentary Research Service Blog

Please don’t rely on the UK mainstream media for truth and evidence – it’s too biased. Here’s an excellent guide to the first phase of the Brexit negotiations published by the European Parliamentary Research Service Blog

Source: The Brexit negotiations: Issues for the first phase | European Parliamentary Research Service Blog

Of course, worse than the output of the UK mainstream media are the platitudes and false truths from Prime Minister, Theresa May and her Brexit Minister, David Davis. I agree with my friend, and fellow blogger, John Gelmini, that these two are such weak negotiators that the UK will be forced into huge financial penalties and political sacrifices.

At least with the above checklist, you can track May and Davis’s concessions.

These are dangerous times for the UK politically, with massive downside economic risks – look at the increasing number of headlines that cite the word ‘revolution’ in relation to the UK.

I suggest that there are four political forces in play:

  1. Conservative Party 1922 Committee ready to replace the prime minister if she continues to bungle her leadership and lose ground to Corbyn’s Labour Party – May has limited wiggle room on Brexit
  2. Right-wing populism, with Nigel Farage, sitting in the wings, ready to step back into the limelight, whipping up support from the Far-Right
  3. Left-wing populism, with Jeremy Corbyn‘s Labour Party, having been hijacked by radical Far-Left activists focused on revolution.
  4. The strategic political center for democracy, like Macron’s France, currently virtually unoccupied in the UK but looking increasingly attractive to Pro-European Tories and Blairite Labour MPs.

The way forward depends upon emerging contingencies and national events.

Strategists should be able to project a series of scenarios for risk profiling  – that’s for another day. But let me share a deep lingering fear, when right-wing populism and left-wing populism converge – a nightmare, with perhaps a new ‘Hitler’, ‘Mussolini’ or ‘Stalin’ emerging in the UK, fanning the ashes of the revolution.

Thoughts?