The FT reports that Wolfgang Schäuble, Germany’s finance minister, has warned British chancellor George Osborne that Berlin would be a tough negotiator if the UK votes to leave the EU. He was speaking on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund spring meetings.

Source: Wolfgang Schäuble warns UK of tough Brexit negotiations – FT.com

This warning is not really surprising.

The ‘Out’ arguments just do not stack up in terms of risk management.

It will be interesting to see the UK Treasury‘s Cost Benefit Analysis once they’ve been approved by the Select Committee. Then the onus will be on the Outs to justify the economic case and risks.

I’m hopeful that common sense will prevail and the Remain campaign will win convincingly on the day.

However, even if the UK votes to stay in the EU, I fear that there has to be a major government reshuffle – it’s likely to happen either way. Indeed feuding within the Conservative Party might even precipitate an early general election.

Thoughts?