Opinion – Make in India, Narendra Modi to global investors – The Times of India – John Gelmini

English: Narendra Modi in Press Conference

English: Narendra Modi in Press Conference (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dr Alf has come up with an accurate prognosis.

Having seen both the Chinese and Indians in operation it is clear to me that China has a plan and is determined to carry it out at warp speed.

100 years of development of infrastructure is being compressed into a decade in China; everyone eats; 650 million people are being taught English; and 25 million new jobs are being created every year.

They might not be jobs that Dr Alf or most of the readers of his blog might want to do but they are jobs which raise the living standards of the people who do them.

When it comes to foreign investment the Chinese know how to attract it and have managed to close a technology gap with the West of 20 years within just 4 years.

The money which this represents is not lying idle it is buying up companies in Europe, America and Australia, building shareholdings in companies like Peugeot and buying key infrastructure like the Port of Felixstowe in Suffolk and the infrastructure company which owns and operates the London Underground.

Much of Africa is feeling their presence as well and they are mining $6 trillion US dollars worth of lithium and copper in Afghanistan.

In Wuxi as far back as 2011 I saw the outline plans the Chinese have to capture more of the global IT/BPO outsourcing market and overtake India which has 60% of this market by 2020.

In Central America, they are building a rival to the Panama Canal in Nicaragua and they are buying up vast acreages of land on which to grow food in Cambodia, Argentina, Brazil because they believe that the world is cooling rather than warming.

India, in addition to the inequalities of income (billionaires at one end and starving “Slumdogs” at the other), has a caste system and so much corruption that when surveyed Indian business people said that the people they would find hardest to deal with were themselves.

South Korea, Cyber City in Malaysia, Singapore and the USA know how to attract inward investment in a way that Modi with all his speech-making could not dream about but when it comes to getting things done he should learn from China and Germany.

John Gelmini

Will China’s policy of bearing gifts to Afghanistan be more successful than both Russian and US policy? – John Gelmini

National emblem of the People's Republic of China

National emblem of the People’s Republic of China (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

The answer to Dr Alf’s question has to be a resounding “yes”. For convenience, I am restating the question:

Will China‘s policy of bearing gifts to Afghanistan be more successful than both Russian and US policy?

China’s assistance to rebuild Afghanistan has given them access to $6 trillion USD in mineral wealth in just copper and lithium alone, and 350,000 Chinese mine-workers who would otherwise have to be found jobs at home or left without work (there have been many riots about huge differences and corruption such as the Wuhan riots in 2012, where the local people forced a change in local Communist Party leadership).

This allows China to expand her economy without creating too many inflationary pressures, whilst building footholds and learning more about countries around the world.

Within each of these communities of Chinese, there is always a Communist Party apparatchiks watching and listening to the expatriates and noting down what he and she sees and hears whilst they live and work in that country.

The excess between the costs of doing the mining, propping up the US dollar and rebuilding Afghanistan’s infrastructure, go back to China and then in turn get invested in Western businesses either by outright acquisition or a slow but steady buildup in shareholdings. The businesses they acquire often have manufacturing or other divisions outsourced or relocated to China, which creates more employment back home, more tax revenues for the Government and thus more money with which to buy land in other countries.

Parcels of land as big as Switzerland are being bought in Brazil, Argentina and Mexico. Nicaragua is to get a new canal to rival the Panama Canal and it will be 100% owned by the People’s Liberation Army through the Chinese Government.

Last week, the Chinese injected billions into Kenya to help it bring Vision 2030, the Kenyan Governments plan to become a first world country, into reality.This is connected to the discovery of massive coal reserves, rare earth deposits and oil.

THE WEST

The West has gained 15 secret bases in Afghanistan which are not so secret because the Russians know where they are.

They have some access to Afghanistan’s mineral wealth and other resources but through XE are effectively going to have to keep troops there forever as has happened in Iraq already where the Americans and ourselves (UK) have long since withdrawn our troops but left behind “security contractors” who work for private mercenary companies composed of ex special forces people and who are not covered by any military code or the Geneva Convention.

The cost to the West in blood, treasure and money has not been insignificant and as we saw with the House of Commons vote and the difficulty President Obama is having over Syria there is a bigger cost, namely the mistrust and loathing of a majority of the people.

People do not want Wars on Terror that kill their sons, send others home maimed and mentally scarred.They do not want the cost of these operations when they are told that there is no money and worse still for these Western Governments, politicians become despised and disliked which then makes it hard for action to be taken on real issues when, occasionally the politicians are speaking the truth.

The Chinese Government is not immune from this but they are creating 25 million new jobs a year and even though these are not necessarily jobs that we would want, they are nevertheless raising living standards for people who had previously lived in even more grinding rural poverty.

The very long game that the Chinese Government is playing is one that they are winning at the West’s expense and is summed up in one of their statements which said “As people become more prosperous we will become more popular”.

John Gelmini

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