Here’s a historic, must-read, lead story in today’s Guardian/Observer. Whilst I accept the evidence presented, the implication is that 50 million Americans were duped into voting for Trump and a similar proportion of Brits were tricked on Brexit. I have also read the Observer’s editorial that picks up the thread and am deeply suspicious by the absence of hard evidence – it’s not enough for a journalist to write, ‘I’ve seen the evidence’. All the evidence must be in the public’s view or their proxy. To me, the editorial reads an anti-Facebook rant by a bunch of champagne socialists. Should we expect the next edition to introduce the Russians as the true master-minds – a sensational story (without evidence), just as Putin wins the Russian election?
The reality is that the poisoned ex spy was tried and then poisoned a long time ago, so the question then is who benefits all these years later from the poisoning of him, his daughter and the hapless British policeman.
We do not know but Mrs May whose political position is precarious and has the answer.
She has at best an 18 month shelf life and her measures against Russia will not work.
Expelling a few diplomats simply triggers a reciprocal response, freezing bank accounts of oligarchs simply gets those who have assets elsewhere to move them further offshore to tax havens not controlled by the UK.
Militarily, we have an army not much bigger than the Papal Guard, no coastal protection vessel, just 17 escort vessels for our shipping and less than 12000 cyber warriors, compared to 2 million in the GRU, and 5 million in Russia’s ally, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army.
We will want Russia’s assistance with the final settlement in Syria and we cannot survive as a modern economy without chromium. 75% of the world’s chrome comes from Russia and South Africa, so in a world where Vladimir Putin can tell South African Government ministers which ones to appoint and fire, whether we like it or not we have to deal with Vladimir Putin.
Mrs May has been out foxed and outclassed at every turn, so it is time we replaced her with a smarter operator along with her lacklustre cabinet. Before strutting about and calling people out, it is best to hold some high cards and be in a position to apply pressure that is effective. The UK is not in that position and Mrs May goes on making a fool of herself and making the country look stupid.