Opinion – First Stage Reality and Brexiters – Mainly Macro – Simon Wren-Lewis

David Davis MP (Conservative). (Photo: Robert ...

David Davis MP (Conservative). (Photo: Robert Sharp / English PEN) (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Here’s a rather good blog from Oxford macro-economist, Simon Wren-Lewis.

Source: First Stage Reality and Brexiters – Mainly Macro – Simon Wren-Lewis

Wren-Lewis speculates that we’re headed for a very soft Brexit. For me, it’s too early to call. But I do agree with Wren-Lewis, don’t trust the political classes to explain the truth.

Look to hard-evidence and professional risk analysis not political chancers. The bottom line is that whether it’s a hard-Brexit or very soft Brexit, the economic costs will be enormous for generations and the gains will be nebulous in the extreme. The damage is done. Now we must look to the major political parties and how they sell the pup to the UK public. I fear Labour will have more credibility and apart from weaker property prices, highly leveraged UK consumers will need to bargain on eye-watering tax increases.

After all, did you see David Davis‘ eyes on the Andrew Marr show?

Thoughts?

 

 

Opinion – Theresa May will review the cap on public sector pay as public have grown ‘weary’ of austerity | Business Insider – John Gelmini

Dr Alf brings us an interesting story but one which has already been overtaken by events following Mrs May’s latest U turn.

When the Banking Crisis finished I was for two years of brutal Canadian style austerity coupled with measures to stimulate export led growth. We got neither of these because the politicians lack the “cojones” to face down public sector trades unions, malingering pensioners bleeding the NHS dry and mendacious Chief Constables, Head Teachers, Local Authority Chief Executives and Common Purpose trained quangocrats. That failure coupled with the failure to deal with fat cat bosses who pay themselves too much, deliver no increases in shareholder value, fail to sell, fail to export and fail to motivate their workers to improve productivity brings us to where we are today.

Dr Alf asks what the likely targets for cuts are likely to be.

I suspect the politicians will fudge by further rationing of NHS care, introducing tougher benefit eligibility criteria and further moves to extend IR35.

They might increase some taxes on middle earners but they will avoid confrontation and do nothing to force police, council and fire service reform, nothing to effect Adult Social Care and NHS mergers and nothing to drive exports.

Under May all one can expect is minimalism and failure.

Lord Tebbitt suggests the Conservatives need to skip a generation and I agree with him. Putting May and her zombie Cabinet to the sword would be a good first step looking at people like Kwazi Kwarteng who is robust, telegenic, sharp and black would be a good way to wrong foot Corbyn.

Then after the Conservative Party Conference, there can be imposed reform starting with Local Authorities and BBC privatisation and then moving hard against Chief Constables and Fire Chiefs with timing to coincide with the trials of Bettison and Duckenfield for their roles in the Hillsborough disaster.

John Gelmini