Double digit unemployment predicted even if eurozone recovers –

European flag outside the Commission

European flag outside the Commission (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

English: Southern Europe.

English: Southern Europe. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This is a deeply worrying but must-read article from the FT, citing latest research from the ECB. Check it out!

via Double digit unemployment predicted even if eurozone recovers –

It seems that long term unemployment in the Eurozone, especially in Southern Europe is here to stay. Even with QE, average Eurozone unemployment is expected to stay at circa 10% twice the level in the US. Of course, unemployment is much worse in Southern Europe, where youth unemployment is 50% plus.

The new team at the European Commission have been busy citing their initiatives for dealing with unemployment but it seems that the researchers at the ECB are much more negative in outlook.

I still think that the Eurozone must relax the Fiscal Constraint and, at the same time, accelerate structural reform, especially in Southern Europe  – this needs to give way to a huge fiscal stimulus.


BBC – Podcasts and Downloads – BBC Business Daily

These podcasts from the BBC are a good listen. Check them out!

via BBC – Podcasts and Downloads – BBC Business Daily.

There are very mixed views following the announcement of QE from the Eurozone on Thursday. Financial markets are generally favorable. Personally, I have sympathy for the prevailing view in Germany that QE may not fix the economic problems of the Eurozone.

QE is a blunt instrument and the side affect of the extra money slushing around are far from clear. Germany is right to argue that many countries in Southern Europe including France have not completed essential structural reforms. Meanwhile, many top economists still feel that Europe needs fiscal expansion. As I have written in another blog – watch out for enormous winners and losers.