Opinion – Lesson from Cyprus: Spending Restraint Is the Pro-Growth Way to Solve a Fiscal Crisis | Cato – John Gelmini

English: Map of Cyprus showing districts

English: Map of Cyprus showing districts (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

Dr Alf is correct, the Cato Institute has come up with an excellent article which portrays Cyprus in a good light but carefully fails to mention the “bail ins” implemented by Chancellor Merkel, the Russian oligarchs who were tipped off before the bail ins were triggered and were able to remove their money offshore/out of the country in the nick of time.

Reunifying the Turkish controlled part of Cyprus with the Greek controlled portion could prove highly dangerous given the nature of the migrant deal concluded by Merkel, Erdogan and Tusk because we know that Turkish border guards will turn people loose for a few pounds and that the incentive will be there for Turkey to grant Turkish citizenship to Syrian refugees and reclassified economic migrants in order to let them out of Turkey and onwards into Europe.

With a reunified Cyprus, an unrestrained Turkey under Erdogan, who is a non secular Muslim leader, might be tempted to see Cyprus as part of his new Ottoman Empire so any Cyprus compact /roadmap must be decision treed and then negotiated in such a way that Erdogan and Turkey, even under a new leader, cannot fix the process to the disadvantage of the people of Cyprus and its expatriate residents (like Dr Alf).

Cyprus might do better as a Federation within the EU split between two Swiss style Cantons, each with a mandatory population ceiling like Singapore’s.

Cypriot offshore gas and oil exploration and exploitation makes sense if conducted with countries like Israel which will no doubt join the EU during the 2nd phase of its enlargement.

John Gelmini

Reunifting Cyprus – You say raki, I say ouzo | The Economist

English: Map of the districts of Cyprus, named...

English: Map of the districts of Cyprus, named in English, with English annotations, and showing the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, United Kingdom Sovereign Base Areas, and United Nations buffer zone. The individual maps see below. Deutsch: Karte der Distrikte Zyperns: Griechische Verwaltungszonen, Türkische Republik Nordzypern, UK-Militärbasen, UN-Pufferzone (englische Beschriftung). Zu den Einzelkarten siehe unten “Individual maps”. (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

This is an outstanding, must-read article by the Economist. The article reports that Greek and Turkish Cypriots, close to a deal but may yet call the whole thing off.

Source: You say raki, I say ouzo | The Economist

The article is optimistic but cautious.

Importantly, the Economist features that the economic growth impact of reunification would be equivalent to an extra 3% GDP. This would push Cyprus growth to Asian levels and it would outstrip many European countries.

Cyprus has had its tough times in recent years but now opportunities exceed risks. I would expect an investment boom as the country continues to strengthen.

Thoughts?